Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Congratulations!

I must say, whatever "really" triggered today, I didn't see it coming, I believe Wall Street did not either. The one min divergence that was very unclear last night was the head leading the body. The 5-min and longer positive divergences were like the tail which takes a little longer to turn, but just as we saw a positive divergence develop quickly, we saw it deconstructed equally as quick, maybe even faster. Smart money reserves the right to change their mind and today and late yesterday, it appears they did exactly that.

Today, with an exception or two, 3C did not find hidden accumulation or distribution, it tracked pure, open distribution and worked as a confirming indicator. The selling was not hidden it was plain as day, right in the sunlight. Something big appears to have changed and if you watch TV or read websites everyone will have a reason why. We have known for months that this market's fate was already sealed, this is why we strategically built up our "CORE" short positions. Let me warn you though, all of the reasons you will hear tonight about why the market did what it did are probably almost all wrong. It will become apparent at some point in time why today specifically acted as it did, but by the time the truth of it comes out, it will be too late for the late-comers to act on.

It really doesn't matter why today was the day that our downside trigger was pulled, we've known for months through charts like this that institutional money was planning for this day.



Although I'm proud of you guys and today was a big day, WE CAN NOT GET TO AHEAD OF OURSELVES. The truth is, the S&P carries the most weight, it closed below the H&S neckline which creates massive overhead supply / resistance. However, the DOW did not break today. The Q's took out the neckline lows, but they didn't take out the 5/6 lows. The IWM has not taken out the June intraday lows, we still have some doubts as to the move, although if there's an index you want to see break, it's the S&P and it did so.

Tomorrow we will see if we get follow through, if so then we are well on our way to a profitable quarter and then some. If we see a bounce, we'll play it by ear and hedge appropriately when needed, that is why we left at least 25% in cash.
As you can see below, we have a 1 min positive divergence, so I'm expecting some upside tomorrow, how far that reaches remains to be seen. What I do feel very strongly is if it isn't today, it will be very soon.

Lets wait and see what happens tomorrow.

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