Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tomorrow

Take a look at the charts on Trade Guild tonight. As I said, we have an important day in the books today, if we get follow through, I'd say the market's fate is sealed and you won't have to do much other than manage your positions, take in money and play some counter trend moves. The whole point of the CORE positions was to get the work done early, then you'll be able to sit back and reap the returns. We are not 100% at that point yet.

The positive divergences are not surprising. Whatever changed today did it fast and in a big way. Market makers got nailed as they saw the gap, they also saw inventory at much higher levels go into a huge loss, especially after they had been gearing up for an oversold bounce. So don't be surprised to see an attempt to fill in that gap; this is why we don't make decisions based on intraday moves, but rather the close.

Also do not be quick to panic, this would be a very normal occurrence and even though it may lead to some upside, it's not highly likely to. Even if it does, we already know where this market is headed, the only thing that will change is a few tactical decisions to reduce drawdown and protect our positions.

Be patient, be calm and make sure you have 25% or so in cash. If you have questions, feel free to email me. If you have time to watch the market tomorrow, you can probably make a quick buck buying something like UPRO and holding for the a.m. bounce, unless it turns out it should be held longer. In any case, that position could probably generate a nice little gain in the a.m.

By the way, the internals today were astoundingly bad. There was no hiding what  money was doing today and it was borderline panic.

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