Monday, July 26, 2010

Like I said,

If you are truly concerned about the market moving higher (which it certainly can-does it create a technical situation that changes trends or the bigger picture, not now-there's no evidence of that yet; however we save 25% even in a fully loaded bear position for longs like JSDA that I threw out there for you last night-up 12.39% today and from a buy at market on the open nearly 10%. That in itself is a profitable hedge. However, you can also use UPRO (3x leveraged long SPY) to offset any move without giving up positions that you amassed at better pricing on the short side. This is why I say keep at least 25% in cash.

Take a look at this 1 min chart
This shows a decent trend at 3pm, volume was rising, but keep it in perspective-it's a 1-minute chart. The MACD did well until the end. At the last minute of the day we saw sell side volume pick up-this in my mind was computer programs executing sales-the actual pattern of the last 6 candles is a candlestick reversal pattern and the volume on the last one sure make it look real.

3 out of 4 3C/4C indicators followed the end of day trend up, but only 1 confirmed it, the rest remained in a relative-negative divergence. One of the more important 5-min charts confirmed the move, 3 actually made new lows which is to say the selling is getting worse. I suspect the one that did confirm it is not in tune with the trend as it hasn't performed well in the past on SPY in this timeframe, the others have.

If you feel worried, the market is down already in after hours last time I looked, you can buy UPRO which is the 3x leveraged long on the SPY and it will partially or fully hedge you and make your portfolio market neutral if you buy enough shares to correspond with any losing short positions.

I don't see any real harm in taking out this insurance policy except that it will have a small premium, you will have to close it should the market move down, but as you saw today, we broke one fairly important support level and one not so important. You need real confirmation otherwise you'd be closing on a break like that just to see the market head higher-using today as an example. This means you'd have to probably wait for a major breach of support like $110 or you would have to wait for a lower close at the end of the day, in which case, the short positions would not make you any money as the market heads down because you are market neutral. So I don't see it as a big risk IF you are feeling shaky and this is scaring you, it will give you some comfort, or as I said, you can reduce your exposure by selling part of the short position and if the market heads up for a day or two more and then reverses, you can add them back at better pricing and make up any loss on the way back down.

Personally I don't like making rush, emotional decisions, but everyone has a different portfolio, style of trading and different risk tolerance so you must do what you are comfortable with. I'm comfortable with hanging in there right now as nothing of any significance has changed yet-$113 hasn't been taken out, 3C hasn't moved into an accumulative stage, the market has increased on rising volume-in fact the opposite, volume is lower today then yesterday.

Your other route is to take some of the long trades I've been putting out there, several did very well today.

That's the info I want you to have right now as the after hours market is still running and you can buy something like UPRO if they haven't closed it for the day, at a discount from the close.

I'll be writing more tonight with more trade ideas and more in depth analysis.

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