Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Afternoon update

We do have our first real negative divergence between the price highs of 11:50 and the recent subsequent retest. Remember though, yesterday we saw a negative divergence last throughout the afternoon, before a leading divergence finally changed the market direction. DBO managed to make a new intraday high and is seeing some distribution into that high. The QQQQ and DIA are also showing a recent negative divergence.

Technology which had been quite strong a couple of days ago is changing character. The leveraged inverse or Tech Bear ETF, TYP is recently showing signs of accumulation, one even in a positive leading divergence, there may be a quick trade there, or perhaps something even longer. It's worth taking a look at these levels, and certainly above $43.84 which is the buy variation of our SWING entry 1 that I just recently released a video about this weekend.

The dollar seems to be continuing it's accumulation which suggests we may be near the end of the pullback there, remember that the dollar typically trades inversely to the market, so the end of the dollar pullback could mean the end of the market bounce, although the correlation is not 100%, there are too many other factors that come into play. It also trades inversely to oil, however, oil may gain on speculation that Israel may attack Iranian nuclear sites as early as this week. This would effectively end the dollar/oil correlation for a while. The market hates uncertainty, and this seems to be an uncertain matter. The speculation alone could be enough to drive up oil prices. So keep an eye on whatever oil trade you may have picked.

As I write this, the market is breaking out to new intraday highs so we'll continue to follow 3C and wait until we get a really clear signal like yesterday's 2:30 update which effectively ended the uptrend.

I'm open for emails and the comments boxes are free and clear, no long lines or waiting!

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