I took the Dow-30, sorted them by price-that's how it's weighted, then looked for a gap down and a close up. The top half of the list showed the winners, in other words, the most expensive stocks that would move the index up the most, such as MCD, were the ones that closed up. When you got to the less expensive Dow stocks, they tended to close down. Furthermore, many of them showed that pattern of no pullback which is a pretty clear indication of program trading.
So it's going to be the most expensive stocks and they needed to close up to make a difference.
Here's PG-the Dow's #2
Note PG opened down just like any other stock after that report. Then at 1 pm it changed course. Note how it trades in the early morning, there's some ups and downs on the 10 minute chart, but then look how it trades in the rally-no ups and downs-this is program trading, this is what we are looking for. 6 of the 7 biggest stocks on the index all exhibited this behavior-I don't mean 7 of the biggest-I mean 1,2,3,4,5,6,7-in that order, the most expensive stocks and it was #6 that didn't quite make the cut. This is the first step, the first piece of the puzzle.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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