This is the equivalent more or less of where we are now and heading-back during the H&S break of 2008-same wedge, a lot that was the same of you read the recent Trade-Guild articles.
You can see actual closing days down just edged out closing days up-the white box represents the top in which we saw a 50% decline from there. However, if you just count days that moved the index down, you get only 13, the rest are bounce days, so as you can see, even during one of the nastiest down trends in a century, the market behaves in such manner to convince Bulls who are full of hope, to re-enter the market and to scare shorts (many of whom believe they are exposed to unlimited loss which is not true) into covering.
The crash and the Great Depression had 5 big bear market rallies, each of which I'm sure scared investors into going long as the trend continued lower. We just went through a historic bear market rally since Q1/Q2 2009, it will be written about and studies in retrospect for a century or more, same as I study the Great Depression, but you have to see how the market functions, and now it's even more manipulative then this. So study this time and try to put yourself emotionally in the middle of this, you will come out with a much better understanding of what we are going through and will continue to experience now.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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