Monday, August 23, 2010

Update

I just wanted to get one update in before I have to get ready for my appointment. Thus far we have seen a small pullback, this is profit taking as far as I can tell. 3C, looking at 6 possible combinations is showing 1 that is in line with the pullback, the rest are still marching steadily higher. I'd expect, with what we see now, although it's very early on, to see higher prices. Watch for a trading range to develop between the open and say 11 am, typically the first breakout above or below the trading range is a good indication of where the market will close-at least the direction. If we see strong momentum there will be no range, but a range does offer institutional money an opportunity to accumulate so it would not mean the market is going to reverse. Thus far, there's no indication of that. Some of the trades posted last night are already off to a decent start.

For a strong momentum day to accomplish a short squeeze, I'd think the market would want to run up to the $109.50 (SPY level). If this is to be a bigger bounce and prices don't move much, but accumulation continues, then I'd expect to see something possibly approaching $112. It's conjecture right now, we're not even an hour into trading and most of this is retail trading. I'll update as soon as I return and watch my email when I'm out.

5 comments:

JC said...

Looks like laz popped this morning and possibly in a accumulation now. Ready for another run this afternoon, when the market runs.

Mr Pink said...

Hi Brandt,

When you get chance, can you give us an update on the long oil trade. Is accumulation still going on despite the 'perceived' weakness in the oil price?

Are 'the powers that be' trying to shake as many longs out of oil as possible by making the price look as weak as possible, while they accumulate steadily as the days go by?

Brandt said...

Mr Pink, I will look at oil right now. Let me know if you are in any particular trade so I can take a specific look there.

Mr Pink said...

Hi Brandt,

I just have long exposure to the crude oil price. Just really need to know if the most probable outcome is a break upwards in the near future, is 3C still showing accumulation by the 'smart money'? As we haven't had much of a bounce in the oil price since the accumulation started recently?

Thanks!

Brandt said...

I just posted an oil update.