We are inline so far

If you read the Trade Guild analysis you'd know that the key in my mind to turning this market downward will be the Labor report Friday, we got a taste of it today.

My opinion is that they would "like" to keep the market up today-although I've seen constant distribution, it just makes sense if the jobs report on Friday is going to be bad. The reason? Because it take selling momentum to break support levels, which in turn creates more selling as the bulls feel the loss. Institutional money would rather see that initial push down the hill created by mass selling by retail so they don't need to create the panic themselves. They don't have much to gain by letting the market fall a little today when, if they can keep it in this area, it could fall a lot Friday and going forward; this is why I expected today to stay in the area of the resistance zone, even though there is a lot of distribution, it just makes sense to try to prop it up.

The market filling the gap right now is a hint that may suggest that is their desire. Usually gaps are filled because of an unexpected news event that occurred overnight to create the gap. MArket makers have inventory at higher levels and they need to push prices up/fill the gap to get rid of that more expensive inventory and by going short, they can make up for any of the gap they weren't able to fill once prices start falling again.

The problem with filling this gap is the distribution I've been talking about everyday suggests they already knew the result of today's unemployment claims, so it would seem to me that they are just trying to keep prices elevated for a big fall that is pushed off the cliff by retail orders.

I could be wrong, that's just my hunch. If that's the case, I would imagine we'd see them support the market around $111.50-$112. I'll be watching for signs of that.