Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Dollar Update

This is a very slight positive divergence, so slight that it may be erased soon if the dollar doesn't pull it together. Despite the Treasury/Fed's statement of a strong dollar policy in early 2010, I don't see the support for the dollar which leads me to believe it was all just to chase the banks out of the risky dollar carry trade. Now we have the makings of a currency war underway with each country trying to devalue their currency. Japan has already intervened at least once, more likely twice but they won't admit to the second intervention. How the US responds is an unknown. Do we still care what China thinks about our currency printing?

I'd like to see at least one reversal candle formation set up before looking to the short term 3C charts. A move above $23.35 would be a huge plus for the dollar appreciating, but I don't feel very strongly about the possibility of that happening. If you are wondering what this means for the market, it could mean next to nothing as correlations are falling apart everywhere you look, most probably due to Fed intervention. It isn't the first time correlations have failed so it's not something new.

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