It looks like a lot of retail jumped in above $113, we saw 3 of the biggest green spikes of the day, then a huge red one. We now have a break from the ascending wedge that brought us up to the $113 level, downside volume is increasing and we are seeing large declining candles. We have 15 minutes, How Low Does She Go?
The VIX positive divergence IS NOT a failed signal, looking back at the April expiration(I have to see where the open interest was big), but I suffered from tunnel vision, initially thinking the VIX contract expired on quadruple witching this Friday, when I found out it settles Wednesday and closes trading today, I thought, "ok we have to move the decline up", I did not think about the forward looking month of October. Just like the April contract expired under accumulation before the decline, it looks like we have the same situation here. The apparent institutional accumulation must be on the October contract. A few weeks after the April expiration we got the huge decline, so it may be that they simply pinned the option chain and will go forward with the drop soon. The price action right now shows a failed attempt to break out of the inverse H&S bottom as suspected. Now you are seeing the start of the Judo concept, right now.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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