Tuesday, September 14, 2010

That's 2!

Last night I told you I wanted to see a gap up today that penetrates the SPY $113.25 level and showed you an example chart of what it would look like. As I often say, in the words or Mark Twain, history doesn't repeat but it rhythms and despite how it happened, we got the penetration of $113.2 on the upside, $113.29 to be exact.

The idea here goes all the way back to the malicious bounce seen setting up August 25th 6 or 7 days before the bounce started. Back then I told you we have the malicious bounce and the oversold bounce. To many this looked like an oversold bounce, but the institutional accumulation showed us it was most likely a malicious bounce there for a reason. First to squeeze the shorts which we saw on a low volume rally-short covering. Then we needed the longs to jump in. Being the longs have been fixated on this H&S bottom that is all wrong with the volume situation, the breakout today of that bottom, not once but twice, intraday sucked the longs in. Who do you think was doing the selling late in the afternoon when we broke below $113-ish? It's that momentum that I believe this entire episode was intended to create.

I have a 5 pm meeting, but I'll write more later. Today wasn't or didn't occur how I expected, but it was definitely a good start for us in the right direction.

If anyone has the time to look at the April VIX contracts and the May and see when the highest call open interest was, it may be enlightening. Furthermore we need to take  look at October's.

I should be back in a few hours. Oh, and for all of you who made $$$ on the update in the oil trade today, excellent job, again it wasn't an easy trade to enter, but you overcame emotions, you went with objectivity and from what I've heard so far, it sounds like several of you have paid for several years of WOWS today.

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