Thursday, September 16, 2010

Following Wall Street's Tactics

As you know, I've been saying $SPY $113 is about the only place that the longs are really interested in buying, to set up a bull trap-remember-failed moved produce fast moves-you need longs to buy.

We know because we are seeing it probably 80+% of the time that Wall Street knows how technicians think, technicians are so attached to the years of study that they just can't or don't want to see this. It's like people who make money in a stock, they fall in love and despite it going against them, they hold it because they've invested so much time learning about all the great reasons this stock will go up. Thus the question, "Do you want to be right or make money". It's the same principle. For conventional analysis, a symmetrical triangle like you see in the red trendlines carries no bias, it's a continuation pattern of the trend that precedes it. that trend-marked by the red arrow is down. Thus technicians believe this triangle will resolve down, it may be why we saw so much volume inside it. However, it resolved up-a failed bearish triangle is bullish in their minds and they bought the breakout-white box.
Here we see that Wall Street is aware of mass sentiment and their fixation with this "perceived" H&S bottom at $113 SPY. Note the only time the bulls enter the market is above the red trendline denoting $113 SPY-in the white boxes.

What Wall Street is doing is so obvious. Look, LEARN!  A solid move above this $113 level should happen once on huge volume, it's not there.

2 comments:

mike c said...

are you saying , look for break above spx 1130
then down after run up?, Thanks MC

Brandt said...

That seems to be the MO, it's just which one of these reversals down never recovers.