SPY Update

Sometimes I rush to get information out to you, like the 12 -ish post today on the SPY divergence and I make assumptions that I shouldn't. I should have said "This is an obvious pattern, watch for the false breakout", however, this is still a lesson.

I've recently said probably 70% of obvious patterns will see a false breakout. I can think of 5 or so examples today alone. Here we have n obvious triangle, a positive divergence, and if you entered at the note on a long inverse ETF for a day trade, you are making money. However, look at the small dip below support just before the move up. You can expect to see this on just about every obvious pattern in price, it's market maker greed and a mini-version of the Judo concept as short covering as the rally starts, gives it some legs. If you have read as much as I have over a decade about TA, you know this isn't supposed to happen so often and when it does it signals a failure-meaning prices continue down and this is why I tell you conventional technical analysis is dead, it WILL hurt you just as it hurt the longs the were stopped out as well as the shorts. It's a "Crazy Ivan"-the market maker clearing both sides of the trade.

In any case, what it means for the market at this point, I doubt much, but as I said, we'll have to see how it reacts to resistance, right now it doesn't seem like it's ready to break through it.