Tuesday, September 21, 2010

GLD Interesting

Anyone who has been here for a week or for several months know that I am bearish on Gold-specifically GLD. The Ascending Wedge was the first clue, but 3C quickly caught onto the distribution, this is why I have issued no GLD long calls or short, I want confirmation.

3C 15 minutes-as I told you, 15 min 3C can change the intermediate trend and lead to a primary trend reversal. Above you can see the apex of the bearish Ascending Wedge, the breakdown at the red box was obviously a sign of trouble, but knowing how the market works, I called for a move above $123, we got it.

3C has gone into a leading negative divergence and it looks like the bubble in GLD is ready to pop. This chart is almost exactly a spitting image of the 5+ year reversal in the oil bubble. I think now you can get your toes wet short GLD or related ETF derivatives. I'd wait for further confirmation before going all in. I see a first target at $112, but I do believe that momentum traders could easily push this through this year's lows.

Their are a lot of people who do not want to see this happen as their fund offerings and business models will collapse so it may be a volatile ride, but one well worth it. Once this gets started moving in a trend, I would absolutely use my Trend Channel to find your stop.

By the way, the general concept of new highs in GLD is exactly the same as the concept of a market reversal, although it looks different.

I'm working my way through the Russell 2k with 3C focussing on individual trades that are not going to see the same volatility and corruption the averages see.

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