Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Here's  today's price action. Note that we drifted lower in the a.m., this I attribute to retail being cautious ahead of the Fed meeting, at least that is what I'd think. Remember the update today about the market's initial reaction to the Fed policy being turned around, here's a great example of that, a big rally up and then the market gives it all back to end basically at "indecision".

Today was not a bad day, actually it wasn't bad considering the concept of follow through. A strong day like yesterday (price wise-internals were the weakest I've seen) should be followed up with another strong day-that's follow through and confirms there's real conviction on the art of the buyers. Well the buyers got what they wanted on a big rally and they weren't willing to step up to bat.

The last post I pointed out apparent manipulation between the smarties on Wall Street and the SEC-probably through the entire Treasury Dept. in there too. I told you it was real, it is real. The game is either changing very fast or we just made a bunch of new discoveries. While others can speculate and write about it, we have the goods right in front of our noses.

The one thing about 3C, I've used this indicator through one of the heaviest manipulation points in time, during the first quarter of 2009 and guess what, 3C still worked, it still made the right calls. So as long as those negative divergences persist or until something else tells me otherwise, I'm sticking with the analysis and saying I'm still expecting the drop.

We've been waiting for the drop for awhile and the fact is 3C has been right about it, it's September now and we are just finding out what appears to be SEC intervention to cause a short squeeze. Devoid of that intervention, August would have likely been our breakdown month. I don't know what the plan is as far as the smarties are concerned, but I'm going to start making some adjustments and give us new tools to work with.

For 1-I'm going to put more emphasis on individual trades rather then market moves. Two I'm going to constantly remind you about risk management, I'm going to ask you, beg and plead with you to please contact me regarding your situation so we can tailor a risk management plan that fits your style. We are going to be using shorter term swing trades of several weeks to a month until we clear this trading range that has persisted much of the year. And finally I'm working on new indicators, scans and sorts starting tonight. I've got some ideas. One is to try to determine roughly the size of positions the smarties put on and at what average price. The other has to do with ideal times to buy and sell. Through a backtest I ran this weekend, I found, without optimization that I could increase results by about 20% by entering the market at low volatility moments and exiting and staying out of the market at high volatility moments. Remember when I said tops are like meat grinders, well there's a volatility component there and we can optimize that. And lastly, finally :) there are going to be a core group of stocks that I know or discover to give excellent 3C signals with high Beta and those are going to be stocks we specialize in. So look for these changes, I'm working every night and on the weekends because I'm excited about these ideas.

As for tomorrow, what I don't want to see is a new high, if that comes to pass, I personally will be reducing exposure, not cutting it off, but reducing it. I want to see a new low , but until we figure out what the deal is between the SEC and the market, we want to tread a little more carefully. Honestly, the more they manipulate this market, the worse it's going to be for their "good intentions" in an exponential way. QE doesn't work, there's no proof that it does, so another round, mat be the last and not for good reasons.

Today's trading was interesting as "flight to safety" assets did well, that doesn't bode well for the bullish scenario. The Patron Saint of the Market, AAPL put in a "Shooting Star" candle today. An easy way to remember the significance of a shooting star is the Japanese saying about a shooting star, "There's trouble overhead". GOOG put in the same. MSFT closed down over 1%, VOD put in a bearish Harami, CSCO closed down, ORCL was down 2.44% (look at this chart-this is typical of a parabolic move that almost always sell off), QCOM put in a Shooting Star, AMGN put in a Harami reversal with a hanging man candle-double bearish, and AMZN out in a Harami/shooting star-only INTC closed up. THOSE ARE THE TOP 10 NASDAQ STOCKS-the ones that would be used to manipulate the market and almost all put in reversal patterns.

So for now, it's stick with the plan and move forward with new plans.

I hope you are finding your experience here at WOWS enlightening, I know some of you are finding it profitable, hopefully this week everyone will be profitable.

2 comments:

JC said...

We are seeing a decoupling of the Euro and US Stock Market This morning. The pre-market is currently down 32 pts while the euro overnight is up to 1.33975 even with headlines like this:

PORTUGAL: 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP, YIELD RISES 5 BPS TO 6.39%


$EURUSD: Finally surges intraday to clear next key topside barriers by 1.3335 and expose a retest of 1.3500 over the coming sessions.

EURO-ZONE: INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDERS YoY (JUL) AT 11.2% MISSING EXPECTATIONS OF 16.2%, PRIOR REVISED UP TO 22.7%

EURO-ZONE: INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDERS MoM (JUL) AT -2.4% MISSING EXPECTATIONS OF -1.4%, PRIOR REVISED DOWN TO 2.4%

$EURUSD: Definitely a little strange to see the acceleration following weaker Eurozone data but there were plenty of stops above 1.3335.

PORTUGAL: 2020 BOND YIELDS 6.242% VERSUS 5.312% IN AUGUST

$EURUSD: Corrective pullback away from earlier highs at $1.3395 extends to $1.3365) as system sellers add weight

$EURUSD: We have been hearing that China has been on the offer ahead of 1.3400.

Read more at: Forex @ DailyFX - Real Time Forex News http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/#ixzz10G07a3C0

Looks like China might be juicing the Euro, even with not so good economic news coming out. Reason? Maybe keep the dollar low.

Quality Stocks said...

"there are going to be a core group of stocks that I know or discover to give excellent 3C signals with high Beta and those are going to be stocks we specialize in."

Really looking forward to this. I find when you list too many trades in your monthly updates I become overwhelmed and make none of them. If we had stocks we specialize in this would prob get me off the fence. Keep up the good work.