5 years ago
Monday, September 20, 2010
My gut still tells me after all I've seen this is a false move, with maybe a gap up in the a.m and a close much lower, but it's Fed day too, which may have something to do with this. A breakout like this should be on double the volume we are seeing. As of now, it looks like the volume will be below Friday's-tha's not what you expect to see on a breakout like this. Until the market is closed I won't be able to see the true breadth, but the NAS a/d line is not getting stronger with price, it's falling lower-less stocks participating, buyers backing off and AAPL is definitely in the driver's seat.
15 comments:
More proof that we are fighting the FED free money and not Retail longs being 'trapped' at higher prices:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-outpaces-buying-over-290-1-past-week
Is this the same 'insider selling' that 3C detects Brandt?
Pink, I think this is just another piece of the puzzle that confirms what we think is going to happen. Why would so many insiders be selling if the market is just going to keep rising?
Jack,
Trouble is mutual funds (i.e. long term holders of stock) have been selling for 19+ weeks straight, into highs and lows, and yet the market still does a 800+ point rally on the DOW... the selling is being completely ignored and why would it not be ignored going forward too?
Reason the market has held/been going up: Free FED money buying stocks. As well as other central banks around the world. There is no way it's Retail investors.
TRIN closed at 0.35!
But that hasn't been a reliable indicator for a quite a while how.
I also read that article and another one that said they were moving out and into emerging market funds. That is why EDZ is one of the ETF's I like. It also stands to reason that if our economy goes down, Emerging markets around the world are going to get hurt. If the Primary Dealers are putting money into the stock market, they will sell just like retail when we get the drop. In fact, no one wants to be the last bag holder of a manipulated market.
Mr. Pink, if the size is large enough and done in the same manner as institutional, it could show up, but from what I've seen in the past, they have to put out notice of what they sold and the price, I don't know if it is an averaged price, I doubt it though. In any case, 3C picks up on the sneaky selling, I don't know a 20k block would be picked up on but it could, in any case, they aren't selling because they think prices are going higher.
Mr. pink I think it has a lot to do with manipulation as I pointed out last night with the AAPL weighting. look at aapl today
mr pink
"TRIN closed at 0.35!
But that hasn't been a reliable indicator for a quite a while how."
When was the last time TRIN was used in analysis?
Another thing when talking about FED free money to banks going into the stock market, the treasury has been making it very clear to banks that they do NOT want them in risk assets, that's part of the reason for the dollar rally and bernanke's strong dollar policy speech-they were trying to cut the banks off on the dollar carry trade, then they upped the reserves to force them out. While there's a lot printed about it, I do not believe the Fed is encouraging or will tolerate too much of banks investing in risk assets, especially after what went on the last several years.
I agree 100%....I do not think the fed is buying direct into stocks or holding someone else’s hand to buy. It may be fun to talk about or speculate but I do not see it as reality.
Quality Stocks,
I think that's naive thinking.
The FED and other (privately owned) central banks openly intervene in every other markets: housing, bonds, currencies, so why not equities?
If retail are leaving the market in droves as well as mutual funds and insiders as recent articles have shown then there must be someone with deep pockets on the other side of that selling to keep the market up.
It is not the fed....Day trading and make up the volume.....and it is low volume at that. If the fed really could buy to keep the market up we would have never seen the 53% crash into March of 09. They would have not let it happen. Well it did happen and can happen again. Prob not in the same manner or time frame but it can happen.
price action is key to focus on. it looked like blow off top moves in the big momentum popular stocks today. to have a run like we have had and see a day like this was pretty nuts. a hard selloff tomorrow with big volume and substantial price declines would be bearish. anything else would be bullish or neutral and not have me shorting. just my opinion. what 3c and the vix are showing on the dailies makes sense to me because of the state of the economy in general. its just a matter of waiting this move out. all the shorts have to be put out of the trade before it can turn down. i was one of them today but i will be ready to re enter if it presents itself.
3c on the spy and vix dailies*
Guys, lets also remember that mutual funds are at historic cash lows. Something like 3.5% cash chasing after a 5% return with the end of the quarter coming this month they are "all in" looking to sneeak out that good quarter results, even though they are disregarding the warning signs. This is what the smart money was looking for. The "all in envirnoment". How many Mutual Fund managers do you think bought today, thinking they were missing the boat. I bet alot. Also, a day like today made a lot of shorts sell. They are in cash looking to get short again. Perfect scenario for a momentum down move.
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