Here are the equity lines for 1 year returns.
So in this case, taking the signals from the trades, which will be culled, you'd have made 54% for the year as opposed to a loss. Most Hedge Funds can't return 54% a year. This is the start of the first of four systems I want to put together. What's the most encouraging is not the return, that can be juiced with the right stock selection, it's the trajectory of the equity line during a choppy market and the validity of 3C. I tied a lot of trading systems other then 3C, most couldn't beat buy and hold. Several were replicated from published books by respected authors!
As for tomorrow, today's internals again were much weaker then price action showed, so this market continues to deteriorate. I imagine the bulls will put in a final stand soon as we are close to several support levels, but ultimately 3C is headed straight down.
I've been working with this all night, so if I missed your email, I will get to in the morning. I have already started analysis for a few of you who requested it while I was waiting for the tests to run.
Until the morning, sleep well-and dream-risk management!
15 comments:
Somebody is juicing the Euro again and raising our stock futures.
Looks like it may have been Japan intervening again.
Futures up 96 and it's pomo day. Get ready for a bumpy ride this morning. Hopefully they fad the gap.
The big guys are hopefully loading up the short boat on this gap. I know we were looking for a gap or retest, but I didn't expect this. It probably was helped by the reaction overnight to the dollar/yen trade and the belief everything is all better this morning with the durable orders.
Looks to be topping out and the Euro is starting to roll over. Not sure if the pomo money is in the market already or not.
Fed's Intervention Will Make 'Everything' Go Up: Tepper http://www.cnbc.com/id/39341388
CNBC spewing positive stories at a very risky time to be long. This is the type of article that was made to fade. When the media is most bullish you must know a change in trend is near.
I agree as it seems they have been pushing an agenda. It seems at times like this, they tend to throw in a caution story now and then. Maybe so they can defend themselves when the market drops like a rock. I have been seeing a few here and there.
There is a gap around 115.50 to 116 that may try to be filled before moving down.
Looks like we might be testing the bottom of the rising trend line. It also seems to forming a very tight rising wedge.
This morning's gap up and recent rise is forming one heck of a Bear flag that is now also forming a rising wedge that seems to be breaking down. Lets see if it tries to pull back into the flag or tendline area
Similar pattern developing on the EURO as well. We may see a breakdown soon. We'll have to see what 3C tells us.
Looks like APPL is forming a descending triangle and at times it can indicate a reversal pattern of an uptrend. Lets see if breaks to the upside on a false move.
The Euro broke to the upside, lets see if it pulls back into it's pattern.
APPL also broke out to the upside, lets see if these are the false moves that the big guys are famous for.
Now we now how much, lets see if it is in the market already.
Fed buys $3.89 bln in bonds; Treasurys stay down 09/24 10:14 AM
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York purchased $3.89 billion in Treasury debt maturing from 2014 to 2016 on Friday, part of officials' pledge to reinvest cash from maturing mortgage-backed securities and housing agency debt back into the bond market to support the economic recovery. Dealers offered to sell the Fed $15.85 billion in debt. After the results, the broader bond market remained under pressure, pushing yields up. Yields on 10-year notes rose 4 basis points to 2.60%.
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