Remember yesterday I said all the 3C timeframes lined up, it was a rare occurrence, but is the best signal of a reversal-that was yesterday.
So it seems like we are on our way back to the neckline. This time we'll have some different strategies in place.
I hope you all made a nice little chunk of change today.
5 years ago
11 comments:
Hi Brandt,
Can you be specific to want level you mean when you say 'neckline'. Which neckline on the SPY are you referring to?
Looking forward to the different strategies. Would love to trade specialized stocks here at WOWs and leverage ETFs for trend plays. As with any speculations picking your entry is key. Keep up the good work my friend.
Thanks Brandt, picked up another couple hundred shares of TZA today near the high on the SPY and about the time the EURO broke it's third Bear flag of the day. In the past we have had a traget of the $104 area on the SPY for a neckline, but I am also seeing some possible resistence from a rising trendline in the $106 area. Does this sound feasible or are you planning on covering that tonight?
Not sure what I'll cover tonight, it depends on what I uncover. I will be back testing strategies and watch lists though.
Mr. Pink, I still consider the most important neckline to be $104, but there is support around $101. I don't think you can make a good case for a descending neckline based on a false break down. It simply does not touch enough points of support. The neckline is part of a large H&S top, consistent with the March 2009 rally Right now it's nearly 10 months long so it's significant, but ever since I saw distribution in the March 09 rally, I felt this was a "Historic" bear market rally, although there's a very good bear market rally after the crash of 1929, actually there's 5 in that bear market decline, but the first is always the most believable.
QS-thank you and thank you for your participation and keen insights.
I know I have said this before and I realize it is early, but thinking ahead to October 15th option expiration and the Jobs report being delayed till that time has me suspicous of what they are up to. It would seem they if they can artificially inflate the job numbers, they can pull off one heck of a bounce into the elections and try to spin it as positive for the Democrat's. Again just speculation and we'll see how this plays out.
possible Jack, but the Republicans killed the rally in oil that made their supporters so rich, 8 months ahead of the election. Other factors were in play, but people have long memories regarding that. And there's already mounting suspicion about the administration and how they conduct business/transparency. I just saw a video of an Obama supporter chewing him out-"tired of defending him" etc. I don't think even a super rally at this point is going to change much. a rally doesn't put millions of people back to work or back in their lost homes.
This is my opinion only, but he made a huge mistake in legacy building with the Health Insurance bill -even if it cost America nothing-it gave most Americans the opinion that he didn't have his eye on the ball.
Manipulating markets with monetary policy or whatever can work for awhile, but it always falls into the law of unintended consequences.
Honestly the 2003 Bull market was almost entirely fueled by consumer spending which came from equity lines and inflated housing prices. The Republicans purposefully maintained a weak dollar policy and the main beneficiary was oil, but look how it turned out. Free markets work, we just don't have them.
I agree, that there are always unintended consequences. At this point they (the administration looking to save face) are looking for any positives they can headed into this election. A healthy job report and an inflated stock market would be something they can spin pretty good just in time for the election. Will it help them, probably very little. Will it have a bad consequence. More than likely. I would bet that the big boys will be more than glad to run the market up on a little good news, just to have another run at making more money going up and then coming down in a grand fashion.
Jack,
But 3C isn't showing that they plan on running the market up anymore? I thought 3C showed that the 'powers that be' have now finished distributing their shares and are short? i.e. This is the reversal we have been waiting for all September.
The market is dynamic for sure, the original plan put out before the rally began, was correct, maybe not timing, but the intent and broad strokes. That's pretty amazing considering it was a week before a rally even started.
I don't know what the OCT surprise will be, but the market could also tank and the campaign slogan could be, "do you want the same people who created this, back in office?" truth is a casualty in politics. Like the market, it's all about perception.
Remember, that currently the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year. Capital gains are set to go up. People will be looking to take whatever profits they can at a lower tax bracket. In addition to other problems for businesses that will be of unintended consequences by letting these cuts expire.
Pink, think of it as a swing trade. They will set up the markets in both directions if it makes sense to do so. At some point (week, 2 weeks, a month) they will want to sell their short trades for a profit and go long. We don't know when that will be. Going down is always a lot faster than up once it picks up speed.
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