Thursday, September 30, 2010

Ugly Close

As I pointed out earlier, the market saviors such as AAPL are going through a change of character as are the markets. Today we saw 3 key reversal days in the major 3 averages and on some of the biggest volume of the entire rally. Today was definitively bearish.

The DIA daily
The SPY Daily
The QQQQ Daily

Here's the AAPL 3C 15 minute chart, you can clearly see the change of character.
3C was making higher highs and higher lows with price in confirmation of the trend until 9/23, since then it has had a rapid shift in it's position of confirmation to the most powerful leading negative divergence on an important timeframe. Remember, AAPL acted as the Patron Saint of the market for quite some time. 9/23 corresponds to the first dip down we had on a 3C confirmation day in which all of the timeframes lined up negatively, this is usually the reversal point and rather rare to see.

Again, I can not stress enough how $115 on the SPY was in easy reach and today's economic data was not so horrible, the market could not or did not want to hold it. This is very strange in itself as this makes nearly a dozen times that $115 was in reach and the market failed, usually on increasing downside volume.

Whatever it is we are seeing, it now seems to be lining up with our expectations. The volume in the market today, considering past days, was quite impressive and makes you wonder, "where did it come from?" My guess is this was an attention getter.

You never know what lurks behind a move, but for what is obvious and what is seen, it looks like we are seeing the start of a reversal.

6 comments:

Mr Pink said...

Good news or bad news for the 3C's long $dollar play?

Retail Investors Going Long On Dollar As It Slides

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Individual investors in the foreign exchange margin market are snapping up dollars.

http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20100930D30JFA26.htm

Brandt said...

We're in the starting stages of a multi-national currency war, there's too many unknowns to make predictions. Everyone is trying to devalue their own currency. 3C long looks negative-mid looks positive so it may be in the middle of some kind of shift.

Mr Pink said...

Brandt,

But if 3C is wrong about the $dollar gaining strength (because of all the 'variables') and the $dollar actually gets even weaker, then surely that throws out all 3C's other predicts of equities going down and gold going down?

Mr Pink said...

... or do you believe that equities and gold will go down no matter how the $dollar behaves?

Brandt said...

I DON'T FOLLOW THE LOGIC IN THAT, 3C SHOWS WHAT SMART MONEY IS DOING, IF THEY ARE CHANGING THEIR POSITION THEN THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENING AND BEING SHOWN, IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OTHER TRADES.

Brandt said...

RIGHT NOW CORRELATIONS BETWEEN MARKETS ARE SHOT, THEY MAY COME BACK AT SOME POINT BUT THE MANIPULATION AND THE CURRENCY WAR RENDERS THEM PRETTY MUCH USELESS FOR NOW.