The Q's failed to produce the same higher highs and looks to be getting more divergent
Friday, October 1, 2010
4th Run
This 4th run in the SPY looks like it'll produce a negative divergence and downside.
DIA Green arrow is in line-no divergences
Same on the SPY
The Q's failed to produce the same higher highs and looks to be getting more divergent
The Q's failed to produce the same higher highs and looks to be getting more divergent
34 comments:
Brandt, from yesterdays close it doesn't look as if the big boys expected this mornings bounce and have been forced to follow the trend for the day. Am I missing something?
And if the numbers released this morning are not what the Big Boys were expecting; does that mean they were lied to or the numbers that were released are not the actual numbers. I bet the numbers we got are not the actual and it threw them off.
No 3C was pretty flat at yesterday's close, 5 min pretty negative. Today reminds me of the summer doldrums. We've got some pretty big red volume coming into the close, but I keep looking at my scaling thinking something's off, considering how flat today's trade has been.
Don't forget there's a strong range trade right now between support and resistance, the charts I posted last night showed it with the thin red trendlines. Trade has stayed inside that 4-5 day range.
...what? so they aren't so smart? and we are following them via 3C!?
I must say it's very very unnerving at present that 3C has been a good 'contrarian' indicator for the past month, gold, equities and $dollar.
It's looking like another day and another week is coming to a close and we are still at highs.
Something's not right. Almost as if overnight or this morning they got called and were told to keep the market up of flat.
Please don't tell me we've got another month of this...
Goldman: QE2 Launches In One Month... Or Else
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/217501
Let's hope all this fraudulent mortgage and foreclosure business in the U.S. blows-up soon... it does look like it's gathering pace.
If the SPY apparently 'broke' last Thursday (correct Brandt?), how long on average (by experience) does it take to from that date to actually 'brake down'?
Looks like 'stick save' time going into the close? Is 3C not seeing any divergences?
I have to fully admit that I didn't expect this level a manipulation from our own government and with such balls to be certian. Putting the money of the US taxpayer as such peril should be an absolute crime. It is no wonder that Ben doesn't want a full audit of the FED. If the American people ever found out what has been taking place behind closed doors, they would be draging people into the streets!!!
...as i've said many times before, if they've manipulated this much so far, why give up all that 'hard work' and suddenly stop now?
Why stop at $150 on the SPY, why not go to $160, or $170 it's not as if anyone but the FED is in this market.
You might be interested in this regarding the a.m. action-
Michael Davis
08:12:53 AM
Treasury Outlook for Oct. 1, 2010
Ten year notes saw over a 1 point drop in minutes Thursday, but recovered to lose only a couple of ticks on the day. The drop was obviously an “HFT ”event, the trading screens were moving so fast at times it was impossible to see with the human eye.
Chicago PMI coming in higher ( 60v. 55 exp.) was the main culprit.
Remember the Chicago number is available to subscribers prior to the public and wire services. Even then the number was a few minutes early. In case you didn ’t know many HFT programs pay to have the data imported directly into their trading programs. For example, one would guess if the Chicago number came in at 50, programs would buy treasuries across the curve automatically. If the number was 60, as it was , programs would sell treasuries. “And so it goes ”.
S&P futures had the same corresponding upward spike on the data to new highs for the late summer move. After the computer driven excitement is was business as usual , Chicago PMI and a 0.1% uptick in the 2nd revision of GDP are not likely to upset the current market structure. Many think QE 2 is still coming!
Mr pink usually with a signal like that it would have broke that day which it did, the move up the next day... manipulation I'd say. As for signals now SPY and Q's have a mild relative/negative divergence, DIA is in line with price as noted earlier this a.m.-they seemed to have swapped roles.
This really has nothing to do with 3C-look at the individual trades, most are doing very well, this has to do with manipulation, but they are not buying enough to counteract the negative divergences, that's why we've gone no where in 15 days.
Well, of course we had the release of the May Flash Crash report today. You certianly can't have another historic crash the same day the report comes out can you.
if you didn't have the info you do have, you very well may have bought the $115 breakout, I think we are at 15 times now. Traditional TA, sell below the $115 level when it breaks, the commission alone would have cost you a pretty penny.
Jack,
No, i guess not... but what's going to be the excuse Monday when still don't have any decent sell-off and we close at highs again?
Brandt,
May i ask how the 'high roller' you advise is holding up? Had to trim back on their shorts? or sticking with it?
he's frustrated, but hanging in there. He trusts my advice. Believe me, I've already saved him 10's of thousands of dollars when he wanted to sell in situations like these just to see them reverse the next day or two.
Looks like someone is using all their might to hold up the market into the close...
... looks like they'll pass it on the 'after hours' and 'futures' boys next for a good goosing.
Is todays candle close to a hanging man? Not sure if the lower wick would be long enough.
Fed's Fisher: Need, Effectiveness Of Further Fed Aid Unclear 10/01 03:00 PM
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--What ails the U.S. economy right now is unlikely to be remedied with fresh Federal Reserve support, a veteran U.S. central bank official said Friday.
"The efficacy of further accommodation at this point is not crystal clear," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said. "Without exception, all the business leaders I interview cite nonmonetary factors--fiscal policy and regulatory constraints or, worse, uncertainty going forward--and better opportunities for earning a return on investment elsewhere as inhibiting their willingness to commit to expansion in the U.S.," the official said.
Fisher explained that in this environment, he would be hesitant to expand the Fed's balance sheet "until our political authorities better align fiscal and regulatory initiatives with the needs of job creators," Fisher said. Until that happens, "further quantitative easing might be pushing on a string" and it could even "flood the engine of the economy with gas that might later ignite inflation."
Fisher doesn't hold a voting role on the interest-rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, but he will next year. His comments came from the text of a speech to be delivered before the Vancouver Board of Trade, in Vancouver.
He spoke at the end of a busy week for central bank policy makers, as many officials offered their views about the economic outlook in the wake of the Fed's recent policy meeting. At that gathering, central bankers offered the official view that inflation was moving too low, and additional support to the recovery may be warranted.
The officials that have spoken this week have offered a variety of views about what should be done. New York Fed President William Dudley said Friday that while a recession redux is unlikely, anemic growth won't be enough to push price pressures up and lower unemployment, so some form of Fed action is necessary.
Other officials have been less committal, while Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser was skeptical on the need for more action, especially in the form of restarting efforts to buy medium- and long-dated fixed-income securities.
Fisher's views appear to line up most closely with Plosser's. Fisher has made the case before that uncertainty and government are the primary forces holding back the U.S. economy, and has downplayed the need for further Fed action, even as the consensus of the FOMC shifts toward just such an outcome.
The central banker also argued that it's not a settled matter within the FOMC about the need for further action. "Despite recent speculation in the press and among market pundits, we did little to settle the debate as to whether the Committee might actually engage in further monetary accommodation" at the last meeting, Fisher said.
Jack,
Also, using 'traditional indicators' i think all the major indices, are or just to have their MACD indicators cross over. A lot also have their 50DMA and 200DMA crossing over to:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$indu
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%$ftse
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$cac
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$dax
Remember I said the Q's lead the market up-outperformed the DIA and SPT by 50-75% -ish and they will lead it down. They posted a new low today, even marginal, considering the above statement, I view that as good. SPY is both a Harami-not a great example, but it is, and it's close to a hanging man-missing the gap, but bearish overall. DIA is a pretty good example of a bearish Harami.
$we've been above $115 now about 15 times, it wouldn't take much to keep or close it there, everytime the selloff has been on volume. Just look at today's advance volume vs. the decline volume, especially in the afternoon. Not a bullish sign. Still you can't underestimate the support the Q's just barely pierced today. Overall it wasn't a horrible day, wasn't a great day for the bulls, definitely was not a good day. Two days in a row of a nice gap that got crushed.
meant it was not a god day for bulls. Imagine how many times they've bought the $115 breakout and had to sell as most will do resistance becomes support,support becomes resistance whole thing. Well $115 broken is then support so stops go right there. Want to talk about frustrating?
Despite his reluctance to offer more support to the economy, Fisher's view of the economy wasn't all that upbeat. "While the risks of a double-dip recession are small, the pace of the recovery is subpar," Fisher said. He added, "The pace of the economic recovery is insufficient to create the number of jobs the United States needs to bring down unemployment."
The official downplayed credit factors as a cause of the current trouble. He said that if small businesses are having trouble borrowing, "it may be more appropriate for the Treasury to undertake a targeted fiscal initiative to improve credit availability." He added, "For mid- and large-sized nonfinancial firms, capital is fairly abundant in America, and it is unclear how much they would benefit from lowering Treasury interest rates."
In his remarks, Fisher also wondered if monetary policy as it thus far has been conducted might be counterproductive, speculating some of the Fed-created liquidity may be leaving the U.S.
"I wonder if the monetary accommodation we have engineered might not be working in the wrong places," the official said. He noted that amid the infusion of credit and liquidity, "this year, net direct investment in the U.S. has been running at a pace that would exceed minus $200 billion, meaning outflows of foreign direct investment are exceeding inflows by a healthy margin." Fisher said, "We will have to watch the data as it unfolds to see if this is a momentary fillip or evidence of a broader trend."
-By Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2214; michael.derby@ dowjones.com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http:// www.djnewsplus.com/nae/al?rnd=VuauQ8NidwQ8YKXCnGCjNw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-01-101600ET
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
AAPL had another bad day, AMZN too. It seems like they may be backing out of the manipulation now. It could be they were supporting all the funds with a killer September to keep the outflows from cascading. The market would most likely really have crashed, but who owns these stocks now? Someone is going to have to pay sooner or later. In any case, by the looks of AAPL and a few others that led the market higher during September, it seems they have backed off
Oh man, wouldn't that be something-prop the market so the Chinese can get out at the best price. Fed's law of un..., well lets just say consequences.
Any way, I'm staying pretty much away from anything broad-dollar related for now, this currency debacle is going to really turn into something unpredictable. Small stocks, yes, broad ETFs, no.
So, would it be wise to stay in TZA, FAZ and EDZ.
Brandt,
The US Dollar is going to reverse soon. Why? It is coming up on some important time and price fibs, sentiment is extreme, a Euro crisis part deux (2) is brewing, and world governments will work to avoid a currency crisis (for now).
On top of that, when markets tank the Euro and commodity currencies will get taken down, which will support the Dollar Index.
If the US Dollar continues down or tanks it will take the whole world economy down with it. This would then send the US Dollar way up as everything else tanks. To me, the US Dollar is like a boomerang. It can only go so far before coming back. I think most people fail to understand that the US Dollar cannot be allowed to go too low or too high relative to other currencies or it destabilizes the world's economic system.
The powers that be on all sides recognize this and the US Dollar will stage a rebound soon. Maybe it will lag the moves in the market, but it will happen.
A full blown currency crisis may occur someday, but for now this one looks like it is going to resolve itself when the Eurozone problems come back to the front page.
The $USD was showing accumulation a while ago before the Japanese intervention, once that started and all the other countries jumped in, I had no more call for a reversal there. I'm keeping an eye on it, but due to the unpredictable nature of an event like the Japanese government suddenly intervening in the currency market, I'm trying to stay away from heavily dollar correlated trades for now.
So stay out of the commodities, but our equity market has a general tie to the dollar. If the dollar continues down it's current path the stock market will continue is climb on little to no volume unless it breaks from the trend. Look for more intervention by Brazil and Japan over the weekend. Possibly other contries to pile in as well.
These countries have been intervening because the USD has been trending down since June. When it stops trending down and starts moving back up, they will stop intervening. And then the smart money will see fit to buy the USD. The price and in my opinion more important time fibs that the USD is approaching are very important. The Euro has just hit some major time and price fibs, as has gold. Plus sentiment on the USD about 97% bearish and about the same bullish percentage on the Euro means there is no real money to be made in these trades. That's when the smart money starts looking the other way. Sentiment is uber important in the currency markets.
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