Here's the article,
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-update-2019-1
The selling has been relentless and every week ORCL is near or at the top of the list.
5 years ago
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Risk Management
Get the Most Out of Your Experience
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 1
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 2
- * The Holy Grail of Investing and Trading-MUST READ-MUST UNDERSTAND IF YOU WANT TO EVER MAKE CONSISTENT MONEY IN THE MARKETS
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- * Placing Stops-What you should consider...
- * A Currency Crisis
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My Charting Software
3C Quick Start
Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.
The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.
We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.
You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.
Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.
The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.
The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.
Position Sizing
The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.
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Is interest rates about to start going up? - Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it to be.
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Futures Update BR-EXIT Edition - So the conventional wisdom couldn't have been more wrong. Those chasing risk and closing hedges couldn't be in a worse place right now. I would still remin...8 years ago
14 comments:
These numbers week after week are incredible and speak of the crash that is coming.
Well, looks like another bad day to be short. DOW Futures were down to around 11,000 before open, and now we've had practically a 120+ move up from there.
Shouldn't we be having an update on AAPL before close, seeing as they are releasing results and have a huge weighting on the indices?
Looks like the HFT's are still pulling the same games on the SPY. 1 min wedge tried to upside, no to the downside and back into the wedge. Probably back to the upside.
Look at the past tops this year and tell me what's different this time? The answer is nothing. Tops take time and this one will take a few days or a week to finish before the plunge. The end result will be the same, POMO, QE2 or not.
So, er, this chart you posted earlier Brandt:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_gGhyx-JKKA8/TLxT_KAFkJI/AAAAAAAAHAc/KS61jN8StDE/s1600/DIA.png
Well, we're now 65+ points up on the DOW. So, what's gone wrong there then?
As, i've said many many times, 3C is the perfect contrarian indicator.
Why are you here Mr. Pink? Why do you pay $50 a month?
Alesund,
I'm a critical thinker who seeks truths. Do you have a problem with that?
Or is this a 'blind faith' only cult/group?
Why don't you join another site that you believe in? You don't seem to believe in what 3C is telling you. I'm just curious as to why you would pay a monthly fee to be disappointed.
I agree with Mr. Pink, you guys are trying to swim upstream. Its extremely hard to short the stock market. Overbought conditions are a lot tougher to predict then oversold conditions. I always wait for a huge change in market market breadth and even then its hard to sell short.
Alesund,
It's not a case of 'believing', using critical thinking i can clearly see, day in-day out, week-in-week-out (like the example i gave above about the chart Brandt posted earlier), that 3C makes more bad calls than good. It's probably only 'correct' around 10% of the time at best, which makes it worse than flipping a coin unfortunately.
I'm new here. If that's your experience, then I really can't understand why you are paying to be a member of this site.
Alesund,
I've been here 3 months, so relatively new too... but already i that time i can see 3C's success/failure rate. And yes, if things don't turn around soon (i.e. markets heading south big as Brandt and 3C have been predicting), i'm not going to stick around much longer paying for very bad advice.
I hope 3C proves me wrong, but days and weeks go by and it proves me right.
So, are AAPL results after market going to lift the market higher or bring it down Brandt?
Yes Brandt, it would be useful to have 3C's view on AAPL.
Mr. Pink, I understand your frustration and hope things work out for all of us.
Option Trading -I agree with you, 3C is showing underlying character, but I always prefer to wait for market confirmation unless something is a homerun.
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