Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Morning Update

Remember yesterday I said there were positive divergences, expect some strength at least early on, maybe into the close. Except that 1 min positive divergence didn't show up on the DIA. It turns out the DIA is the first this a.m. to put in a 1-minute negative divergence.


FAZ is one I've been saying, look for a pullback, we've had two days of great opportunities right at support, it's still in a decent position so long as you use risk management/position sizing (read my risk management link at the top right of the site with the other links.


I'm not sure how Ambac Financial fits into this, but something told me to look at their chart. This is a momentum crowd favorite and can really move as you'll see.

Here's my crossover screen to avoid whipsaws-3 buy signals. A pullback to the 10-day moving average in yellow would be a nice place to open a position. However, you may want to consider opening a small position now, get your toes wet as this has so much momentum, it may not pullback to the 10-day average again before it starts another leg up. The 22-day average in blue should serve as a stop, just beneath it actually.

Another day in the woodshed for BAC...
You can clearly see the top, this one is broken. Sometimes you just have to go for it, lower lows and all. I am a fan of building a position, getting in or getting my toes wet on a day like today, but saving 50% or more of the position to add on any strength. It's dollar cost averaging, but for the right reasons.

 Here's the trend channel with a stop for swing traders.

 Here's the trend channel with a stop for trend traders, it will move down pretty quickly (the trend channel) and the beauty is it locks in gains every day as the stock moves down and even keeps you in the position during most consolidations-this is an excellent tool for anyone with TeleChart or StockFinder-I'll be glad to send it to you.

GLD
Again, you can get your toes wet in GLD if you believe in the position, but a break of the pink 30 day moving average for me, seals the deal and that's where I want my position to be pretty much filled out on the short side.

So the DIA put in a negative divergence, this may just be a speed bump, I fully expect some more strength out of today, but for day traders this information should be helpful. Don't forget to check out the TICK chart, draw some trendlines and when they are broken, you can expect a change in the intraday trend many times.

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