This is the 1, 5, 10 and 15 minute DIA 3C charts, all in negative divergences, I continue to believe this rally is being used to sell/short into and will be faded.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Sticking with a Faded Rally
It takes time to get these out to you so I'm just using the DIA for example....
This is the 1, 5, 10 and 15 minute DIA 3C charts, all in negative divergences, I continue to believe this rally is being used to sell/short into and will be faded.
This is the 1, 5, 10 and 15 minute DIA 3C charts, all in negative divergences, I continue to believe this rally is being used to sell/short into and will be faded.
13 comments:
And now we are at highs for the day....
U.S. Will Force Change If Improper Foreclosures Found - Donovan
http://www.advfn.com/news_U-S-Will-Force-Change-If-Improper-Foreclosures-Found-Donovan_44868663.html
DOW still up 150+ points with 15 minutes of trading left. Not long to 'fade' a 150 point gain Brandt?
Well, we finished up a good 120 points on the DOW.
What does this tell us Brandt? Expect it to finish being 'faded' tomorrow seeing as the 5minute 3C chart you posted was very 'strong'?
Volume wasn't very good, on SPY at least.
Might be worth running 3C over these to see how they finished Brandt:
Companies reporting Before the Market Open on Thursday, October 21
Notable companies reporting before the opening bell include Air Products and Chemicals (APD), BB&T (BBT), FLIR Systems (FLIR), Goodrich (GR), Laboratory Corporation of America (LH), McDonald's (MCD), Philip Morris (PM), SunTrust (STI), The Hershey Company (HSY), The Travelers Companies (TRV), Union Pacific (UNP), United Parcel Service (UPS), VF (VFC), and Xerox (XRX).
3C seemed to have shown heavy distribution today, yet the market made a good 120 point positive move. If 3C is right, i would expect it would be one of the companies above that drags the market down before open tomorrow? Thoughts?
As posted before:
Mr. Pink, you say your a critical thinker, then at least use the facts instead of just being plain critical. From last night's post, I said:
"In my opinion and from what I saw in 3C and the retracement of the Euro tonight this is enough to put the market into a short term oversold condition so I still would not be surprised to see a bounce. "
and
"However, as I have been highlighting all this month, the breadth readings (internal health of rally) have been bad and have continued to deteriorate so no matter what we see tomorrow, even a complete retracement of today's weakness, it is just a tree in the forest."
and
"For those wondering, "Is this the reversal", I'd say yes with the caveat that a top or bottom reversal, large or small, is a process, not an event."
Look at any recent top or any top and you will see that they are not "V" shaped, but rather "U" shaped. If you choose to ignore 3C's information showing distribution into today's bounce and bought long, best of luck.
If you look at the QQQQ you will see at 12:00 it started a pattern of lower highs, lower lows-a downtrend.
The SPY at 2:40 a pattern of lower highs , lower lows, again a downtrend.
The DIA at 2:40 a pattern of lower highs/lower lows.
3C showed a strong negative divergence in AAPL as well as IBM, both hit hard, GLD hi hard, the Eur/Dollar which rallied last night, formed a triangle which it broke after a false upside breakout, about 20-30 minutes ago and looks very much like it too is in the process of a top.
I do believe (although I still need to look at internals) today was a tree in the forest as I alluded to last night. You know, as I and QS have explained to you on numerous occasions, 3C shows the underlying character of the trend, it is not a fortune telling indicator. To know that the underlying character of this trend showed distribution is an important piece of knowledge lest you go buying on margin the trend only to see yourself rocked tomorrow.
Some fairness once in awhile would be nice. I do not control what smart money does, I just try to show you.
To your last post, it is a productive post, I appreciate that and i will look into the companies you mentioned.
A better angle is to look for notables after the close in case there is anything strongly suggesting an inside angle, then if someone wishes to trade the earnings, like with AAPL, they may make a $$$
I'll take a look.
You are very patient and tactful Brandt. You are a true gentleman.
I endorse Alesund's comments Brandt. EVERY trading decision I make is on MY shoulders. I read your input every day (along with many others) and deploy it(or ignore it) at MY discretion. I feel some of your subscribers are abrogating personal decision making processes when they criticise 3C (and by proxy, you). Keep up the great work!
3C will be proven right. Something big is brewing. We'll have some more up and down first, but it is coming.
AC, Alesund,
You can sing 3C and Brandt's praises all you like. I don't fall in love with systems, especially ones that make as many bad calls as 3C has done recently.
I look at cold hard facts, and they are that 3C only seems to call things right a minority of times (like yesterday it got it right) and today i would say it got it largely wrong based on the 3C 5 minute chart Brandt posted.
We'll see what tomorrow brings, 3C looks to be saying it'll be a down day and that this was just an 'oversold' one day bounce. Brandt has re-affirmed that he thinks this is the 'turning point'. Although, as you can imagine, i'm slightly skeptical as Brandt also thought that 23rd of September was the day the SPY 'broke', it since went on to make another 40-45 point move upwards.
As Brandt has said, if 3C was that good, he'd be on his own big yacht in the caribbean somewhere.
I'm still here, and still giving 3C a chance to be proven right, but i'm not going to wait around forever for 3C's forecast of 'it going to rain hard' to materialise. It's already been 1 and a half months of distribution.
Anyway, i'm sure we'll find out soon enough if this is the top or not. Another day tomorrow and nearly the end of another week.
An futures are up, up, up!
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