Thursday, October 14, 2010

Thank you for all the well wishes....

I'm still trying to get caught up. Here are a few requests. Someone asked about FAZ, I have favored FAZ for several days now as a long, XLF has had the mirror opposite look in 3C, this in itself is strong confirmation to me. I thought it would do the old black box or new black box trick and take out obvious support, it did, but was still a good buy. It's up over 5% today on good volume.

TREASURIES the ETFs are tough as they don't have a lot of volume. What I'm seeing in IEF, the shorter was some negative divergences in the long 3C, the last two days it has shown significant improvement.

Here's the improvement in 7-10 year IEF

Here's TLT 20 year+ note 3C basically in lockstep with prices until the positive divergence, these are short term possible reversals.


TMV, the bearish 30 year  looks pretty much the opposite short term. I think there's a lot up in the air with inflation, the FED WANTED to see inflation, but they wanted to create it, it is now creating itself which would raise the prospect of it getting out of hand. There was a piece in Bloomberg from the Fed's Lacker who said creating jobs was imperative, but risked inflation. It's an interesting read and it's right here...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-14/fed-s-lacker-says-making-jobs-a-policy-imperative-risks-inflation-bias.html

GLD...
The last two days has not looked like a strong 3C trend. Although this is one of those trades like i or the dollar that seems impossible for it to go in any direction then  up, all of those trades I mentioned did break their trends.
As an interesting aside, before I heard about the shoeshine boy story, during the housing boom, I had said, "when house-wives start to become real estate speculators, you know the end of the trend is near."

Interestingly, if you are looking for a job on something like Craig's list, there are a million positions available for life insurance agents and no matter what your resume says, YOU ARE PERFECT for the job. Well we had a garage sale to get rid of anything I haven't used in the last 6 months and this guy who is a life insurance agent calls me the day before inquiring about whether I have gold jewelry for sale. I told him, " I don't think so", but guess who shows up the next day just to double check. It reminds me of the shoeshine boy story or the housewives. In any case, that's just an aside.

As for FAZ/ XLF, here are the charts that REALLY count. There's now correlation between these two unless 3C is picking up on a real correlation of one being bought and one being sold.

 FAZ
XLF

I'll try to get to more of your requests...

Again thank you for the well wishes.

1 comment:

JC said...

Thanks Brandt for the updates. Let's keep an eye on the Treasuries vs. Inflation trade as this has the potential to be a big mover with the risk/reward trend across the country. We could see a sharp spike in interest rates as this unfolds.