Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Afternoon Update

 DIA 1 min looking  little weak here

 DIA 5 min is trading in line

 The daily DIA chart-downtrends are lower highs, lower lows, but to do that you need bounces. Note the trend down, with bounces. What I'm watching is the trend line where the support at the lows is nearly the same, this is called a "Tweezer Bottom" and is a short term reversal signal, hinting at a possible bounce.

 QQQQ 1 min showing a small positive divergence

 QQQQ 5 min showing the same

 SPY 1 min is in line

 There' a little weakness in the 5 min chart, not huge though.

Here's the same "tweezer bottom" on the SPY

This is not so much 3C analysis as it is conventional candlestick charting, but t's worth considering.

5 comments:

JC said...

How big of a bounce and what is your target?

Brandt said...

Jack the observation is purely based on the daily candlesticks/support. 3C hasn't shown the kind of accumulation that I'd expect (so far) for even a moderate bounce, but the volume surges seen yesterday and just now will probably dictate what happens and how 3C reacts to those wide out in the open buying.

If it were me playing on the otherside of this, I'd go for a false breakout above the consolidation rectangle. This is still probably a little premature, but we have to look at all of the possibilities.

JC said...

Thanks Brandt for the updates, just getting a little impatient as TZA, FAZ and EDZ seem to lose on momentum on a daily basis. Nice pop that fizzles as the day goes on.

Brandt said...

Jack, see the latest post. To the extent there were negative1 min divergences in the market, TZA, EDZ and FAZ all saw the opposite in positive divergences.

Brandt said...

In addition, these are al in pretty major and successful reversal formations. I like al 3, but you'll need to be patient with them. If you want to see how they are likely to perform, look at the Dollar Index which was in a similar pattern (wedge) most of 2009, the turn around was around December and fulfilled the wedge price target. Recently these have been the best performing patterns. UUP is doing very well in one right now, but I have noticed these patterns are more volatile around the reversal initially for a month or so.