Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Daily Trend Channel

As you know, I use my proprietary Trend Channel to stop out of positions or show a change in trend. The channel itself measures the typical volatility of each issue for a set period and anything that is a multiple of a standard deviation outside of that behavior crosses the channel and causes what I term an objective stop, rather then guessing. This is ON THE CLOSE ONLY, not intraday.

As of now, it appears all 3 averages have or are in the midst of a change in trend.

A change in trend does not mean down, it could mean sideways, but in a situation like this, I think it would be bad news for the market and probably indicate that the current trend has changed enough to cause a reversal. There's a few caveats to that, but this is the closest we have been to such as you can see the channel has held the entire rally, not even one false signal.

 DIA
 QQQQ
SPY

2 comments:

bill rattray said...

what do you think about silver and gold on this pullbacl?

Brandt said...

There doesn't seem to be any 3C indications that they are about to reverse course, they both look negative in all time frames except silver has a positive in the 5 min. They seem intent on killing the PMs and CME seemed like it sent that message out again today with the second lift on margin in Silver in what, a week? I personally would not be a buyer here, although there may be a point in which that would change.