Here you can see the dollar getting slammed last night, thus the market opening higher as it's about 90% correlated at this point. Most of today, the Euro has lost ground against the Dollar, you can see it the Euro broke it's first support where it's being retested now. If the trend in the Eur/USD keeps up overnight, we may see equities and specifically GLD down in the morning. None of the GLD 3C charts above show positive divergences or even confirmation.
52 comments:
Thanks for the update Brandt.
Brandt, so which direction is the MARKET going to be moving now? UP or DOWN?
your very welcome Alesund.
MEEE, I can just present the charts and my interpretation when relevant. I don't read the tea leaves so to speak. From what I see, this looks to be the initial knee jerk reaction I was expecting yesterday. I'm not seeing a lot if any confirmation. So I'm "guessing" this is the Fed effect that I spoke of-a day late. In my experience, I can not remember off hand the last time that the Fed effect didn't come true. As for GLD, it also is showing no confirmation, just negative 3C divergences which I would interpret as profit taking, maybe something worse. If the dollar continues on its trajectory it as been on during the US session overnight, I'd expect a move lower in the morning.
I hope so Brandt. I mean a LONG term (LOWER) market direction, because WE are getting KILLED with our (FAZ) positions.
meee-did you consider the bond short trade I put up earlier?
Bond short???? BRANDT, I am talking about the (FAZ) we have been accumulating all these months.
meeeee,
What do you keep asking Brandt's opinion for? His track record is terrible and his credibility is zero now.
As Einstein said "The definition of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
And that is what you're doing by asking Brandt's opinion and believing in this 3C nonsense.
Brandt continually changes his story to suit, just read back over the past few months posts, one minute he is saying 'The SPY has broke at $130, looks like we are on our way down to the bottom again" or "this is a right shoulder being form" or "these little games are just to trap the longs for the big move down", etc, etc.
If 3C was any good, do you think Brandt would have to do this WoW nonsense taking $50 a month off of us suckers?
Its got all the hallmarks of a scam to me:
It relies on getting new subscribes on board (via Brandt's www.trade-guild.net site where he only posts '3Cs success stories' and not the majority bad calls), Once people are on board they stay for a few months see how bad 3C is and then leave, and Brandt collects a few hundred $ from them. Then new subscribers come on board and the same is repeated over and over.
Brandt has to continually keep up the facade that 3C is right, the huge amount of times 3C is wrong never get mentioned again, they are just dismissed.
Sorry, the Einstein quote is for insanity:
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
MR. PINK, because I have FAZ accumulated for these past months based on BRANDT telling us to accumulate because the market was going to be selling off.
And as of 3:50 PM, we are absolutely getting KILLED with our FAZ positions.
I can't be the ONLY one on here with accumulated (FAZ) based on what BRANDT has been telling us for months.
meeeee,
Yep, i completely understand.
But, it's all part of the scam. Brandt will just pull out the "It's your fault, you should have used risk management, see link in the corner, crap".
Obviously, as anybody with half a brain cell knows is that this WoW was SUPPOSE TO BE OUR RISK MANAGEMENT from blindly trading on the markets. THAT'S WHY WE SIGNED UP. No point having to do risk management on your risk management now is there.
It's a scam, pure and simple.
I have to say I agrue with you guyss. Most of the calls have ben awful and more then elimenate profit on any of winners. It's time to abandon this site and any notion that 3C werks. I'm not renewing and I'm putting this bad experience behind me.
Gold is up $45 an ounce today to just under $1400 an ounce.
Brandt/3C said gold was at the top when it was $1244 an ounce. And said Silver looked sick when it was at $20 an ounce, it's now $26 dollars an ounce!
How do you sleep at night peddling this junk Brandt?
3C/Wolf on Wall street is a scam. SPREAD THE WORD, save others.
Jack, are you still about or have your chucked in the towel yet?
I am curious Brandt. Have you been accumulating ANY SHORT positions, like YOU have been telling us for the pass MONTHS? And if you have...and BRANDT YOU should have some SHORT positions based on what YOU have been telling us these past months.
And how are YOUR SHORT accumulated positions doing BRANDT? I am VERY curious to hear the answer to this.
As a matter a fact, I just remember that a few weeks ago, BRANDT you told us to buy into (FAZ) because it was accumulating UP.
So I am curious Brandt. Have you been accumulating ANY SHORT positions, like YOU have been telling us for the pass MONTHS? And if you have...and BRANDT YOU should have some SHORT positions based on what YOU have been telling us these past months.
And how are YOUR SHORT accumulated positions doing BRANDT? I am VERY curious to hear the answer to this.
meeeee,
He said the same thing about:
Accumulation in the $US dollar.
Accumulation in VIX.
Distribution in gold.
Distribution in silver.
Distribution in all equity averages.
ALL, HAVE DONE THE OPPOSITE AND STRONGLY.
I SAID AT THE TIME THAT 3C WAS A PERFECT CONTRARIAN INDICATOR AND YOU SHOULD DO THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT 3C/BRANDT SAYS.
It's a scam. As, i also said many weeks ago, 3C has no bearing on real market movement.
Jack, are you still around?
Still here, taking a beating like the rest. I am stubborn and refuse to believe that this is going to continue higher. At some point the house of cards will crash and it will be spectacular. When I sell that is when it will happen and I will miss the first 30% gain or so because it will be a big gap down. I'll let you know when I exit. I have already lost a major amount of money, that selling now would admit defeat.
Lets look at what is going on...the FED is destroying the dollar trying to drive up stocks so we all feel good about ourselves. At the same time they are also driving up the cost of all things that common people need to survive...oil, food, and so forth. So sooner or later we are back to high commodity prices killing our economy. What do you think they are doing to the rest of the world right now. Currency war to start because we are a currency manipulator. I know you have some silver and gold, bullets and guns; better stock up more.
When you are short you are against so many more forces in the market then when you are long. Stocks naturally want to move higher. Companies have good earnings, the fed is buying, interest rates are rock bottom and the dollar is falling. Trying to short is insane. I've traded for 15 years and work in the financial industry and shorting stocks is a very hard thing to do constantly. 90% I prefer to be in cash when the market hits a distribution phase and the only way to tell a distribution phase is a big sell off with huge volume.
I'm glad I've just watched and have used my system then follow the short trades.
I am STILL curious to hear how BRANDT SHORTS are doing, since he has been tell us to accumulate on the SHORT side all these MONTHS?
I still don't understand why a top is called on a short term chart, i.e. hourly, 15 min, 5 min, 1 min when the daily chart is not showing real divergence.
I'm throwing in the towel guys... I'm not renewing unless something DRAMATIC changes soon, which I doubt. Like you, I believe 3C cannot be trusted as an indicator. When you can't trust something, you won't act on it even when it's right. I wish you all good luck and may we all find peace and prosperity.
G
Anonymous,
I thought that the longer term charts (1 day+), Brandt led us to believe that they showed 3C pointing further and further downwards even as the market averages have gone higher and higher...
... after all, they were the 'important' charts that showed that the market was going to sell off big or so we were led to believe? Was it all lies?
I'm throwing in the towel as well. 3C and me are officially divorced. Brandt is a nice guy and has some good insights into the markets. But 3C has failed time and time again.
He's got no idea - I can draw fancy little lines on charts that say up or down. Flip a quarter - you have better odds with that than 3C on any given day.
Anonymous,
Yes, as i said quite a while ago now. Those 3C lines have no bearing on real market movement. 3C may as well be monitoring the amount of birds landing on Brandt's roof.
And yet, with flipping a coin, you would by the law of averages be correct in your calls 50% of the time. Which is way way better than the 10-20% time that 3C/Brandt is correct.. and it doesn't cost you $600 per annum to flip a coin!
I wonder if Brandt's higher roller is pleased that Brandt talked him out of closing his shorts, that was 40+ SPY points ago!
3C/Wow/Brandt damages your wealth, full stop.
I don't mind spending the $50/mo. I like Brandt and believe he's sincere. I just wish I covered and went long at the end of Aug./beg. of Sept. when the slow stoch made it's turn. I thought I could wait out that turn, looking at what 3c was indicating. Another lesson learned.
G
G,
You just read the same signs as us. You are not to blame.
3C/Brandt said at the start of this 'bounce' at the start of September, that there wasn't much accumulation preceding it, Brandt even said that 3C wasn't in a leading positive divergence. We also had 3C showing distribution from day 1 of the 'bounce' and every day has shown distribution. Brandt has also said that this 'bounce' has broke at least twice during it's 2month+ run up. Brandt even said on the last 'brake' that the following days move up was nothing to be concerned with. Brandt has constantly said through out this 'bounce' that the internals don't support this as being a strong run up. He's shown breadth readings and all kinds of charts... he's used every excuse in the book when things don't work out. The latest being the old 'weak dollar correlation', even though i asked him would the weak dollar cause the market to go higher, and he said something along the lines of "3C is showing distribution in the market averages, that's what count". And 3C showed accumulation in the dollar, so that's a double kick in the balls for any following 3C on the market averages and dollar.
... bottom line, 3C got it all badly wrong. Don't beat yourself up about it, it was 3C/Brandt that called this very wrong. We have acted like sheep, not wolves.
Just warn others not to pay for this nonsense. Save others the pain.
Mr. Pink
Do you create your own charts? I wish I did when I first joined as I would not have gone short based on short term time frames. Start from 9/1 and 3C shows no change on the daily. Look at 3C daily charts on the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P. They all show no negative divergence on the daily. When you look at shorter time frames there are divergences but so what when there are no change on the daily?
Anonymous,
I distinctly remember Brandt showing some longer time charts (were they weekly? i'm sure they were daily) that showed 3C going through the floor and 3C leading down to something like SPY 950 or similar?
After all those charts were the justification for this 'huge sell-off' that was suppose to happen after we completed this 'right shoulder' (the right shoulder that is now above the 'head').
Like i said before, if you keep track of Brandt's/3C performance on the calls they make, they are terrible. But Brandt has to keep up the pretence that 3C is good for the new suckers that subscribe here when we leave.
TRIN closed at .57, VIX at 18.52. SPY and $INDU have spiked up outside the Bollinger bands. RSI at extremes.
Should be a down day tomorrow.
But Brandt tells us that they use traditional charting methods against us, as they see what we see, right?
EUR just spiked up against the $dollar. Not another bad call so soon eh Brandt?
I'm looking at SPY daily and weekly right now and I don't see it. In fact its virtually all positive since 9/1. However, if you look at shorter time frames negative divergence is there. That might be great for day trading but not swing trading.
SO, HAVE YOU LIED TO US BRANDT ABOUT THE LONGER TERM 3C CHARTS SHOWING HUGE NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES/DISTRIBUTION?
WELL!!?? That was the big justification for the sell-off to come, right? I THINK YOU'VE GOT SOME SERIOUS QUESTIONS TO ANSWER BRANDT.
Did everyone else believe that the longer term 3C charts showed big negative divergences (distribution)? Comments everyone?
Mr. Pink
I'm looking at SPY daily and weekly charts right now and I don't see any negative divergence since 9/1. However, if you look at shorter time frames negative divergence is there. That might be great for day trading but not swing trading. Maybe Brandt is trying too make this more than it is. My look on 3C daily is that I would be long since 3C. Unfortunatley I have been short and havr been hammered.
Is anyone here making $$? If so, how??
Well, i dug back myself and Brandt showed this 3C 3 day chart at the end of august:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_gGhyx-JKKA8/TKFgqayz2tI/AAAAAAAAGmA/1BgYymPtVhY/s1600/spy+distribution.png
Post is here:
http://wolfonwallstreet.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2010-09-28T11%3A58%3A00-04%3A00&max-results=50
As you can see, 3C points down to SPY $800. Showing huge distribution since the start of 2010.
Look at all the other charts in the same post. This one is of GLD:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_gGhyx-JKKA8/TKFjd-e1ZdI/AAAAAAAAGmg/pmiEaUhfe3A/s1600/gld.png
As we can all see in hind-sight these charts were complete and UTTER non-sense.
AND YOU LED US TO BE SHORT ON THE MARKETS AND SHORT ON PRECIOUS METALS BRANDT AND LONG ON THE DOLLAR AND VIX!!!
Sorry, meant was posted at end of September.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40013227
I sure hope Ron is able to take Big Ben to the woodsheed like he has taken it to us.
Brandt also posted these 2 days charts in August (Thursday, August 26, 2010):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_gGhyx-JKKA8/THcCvvQoosI/AAAAAAAAFnI/apat0lRXPvo/s1600/ndx.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_gGhyx-JKKA8/THcC0f5talI/AAAAAAAAFnQ/rySrOMt5nck/s1600/sp-500.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_gGhyx-JKKA8/THcC8r6kzlI/AAAAAAAAFnY/VW_vV4Ypxkk/s1600/dow.png
"Questions about the market's bearishness?"
Interesting. Daily shows something entirely different. Maybe selective time frame to prove something?
Come on Brandt, how about a refund on subscriptions for all of us, would be the decent thing to do. You bang on about how you called the oil top within a week of it happening, and how you called the 2009 bottom, you must have made tons of money. Do you really need to take $50 a month off of all of us for this terrible 3C advice? I'm sure we'd all be more than willing to pay again when/if 3C shows that it's worth paying for.
What say you Brandt?
Anonymous,
I think you said the correct word 'selective', i think Brandt shows a lot of 'selective' things.
Either way, most of us here are getting hammered following 3C/Brandt's advice...
... so, it's definitely not us that's the problem here. Do let yourself think any different. Otherwise you're slipping into 'stockholm syndrome' territory.
meant to say "don't let yourself think any different".
Anonymous,
This chart was a daily that Brandt posted:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_gGhyx-JKKA8/THcCvvQoosI/AAAAAAAAFnI/apat0lRXPvo/s1600/ndx.png
As you can see, turned out to be the complete opposite to reality. That's why you have to track performance. Performance = reliability = credibility. 3C/Brandt has none of these.
Brandt,
I'm looking forward to tonight's 3C analysis. My prediction is that today was the last gasp of a dying man trying to bring life back. As has been the tried and true relationship with the market, when the most people are getting squezed out of position is when the market is ready to turn and at the same time these same people turn bullish and take the bait. I know we are all looking at our trades and positions wondering what we did and feeling alot of pain. I don't look at my account anymore, just read the charts that basically say we have been overbought for a long time now. I personally think Big Ben has finally pissed off the world and we are in for quite a ride. It would interesting to hear what others think the trades going forward are; without all the bitching and screaming. Just straight up talk about what we percieve to be our next moves as the world start to crumble around it's attacks towards us. Thoughts anyone. I like the commodities trade, short US bonds and silver. Although, I prefer to look at taking position in physical metal. The silver and gold trades may pull back some and that would be the time to buy. You can always buy some now and scale in if it continues it's upward movement. Some of you might not be aware of this but, silver paper trades are at about 100-1. This means that for every piece of paper someone purchased saying they own x amount, about 1 of the 100 could be actually delivered if it were called in. Imagine what the price of silver would do if demand for physical delivery suddenly increase due to a currency war.
Jack,
I think all trades, equities, precious metals, fx all revolve around the $dollar now. If any of the trades we are position for: short equities, short precious metals, long dollar, long VIX are going to come good...
... then the one thing that NEEDS to happen is for the dollar to gain value. At present it's dropping like a lead weight and with the FED basically saying they are going to do QE forever (they've set the precedent now, there is no turning back from going down this road) then i there is no reason for that to happen. DON'T FORGET WE HAVE OVER 100 POMO DAYS for the next 8 months. That's an average of 12 a month or 3 a week! LOOK WHAT ALL THAT FREE POMO MONEY HAS DONE TO THE MARKET SO FAR, Its not only held it up, it's actually florished, we are at 2008 levels now!
The main problem here is that Ben B has forced money into equities as players are chasing any form of returns. And with zero percent interest rates, dollar going down the pan and bonds offering little returns for long periods... money has no choice but to go to equities.
Last gasp for equities you say? So, you think this is the top? SPY going no higher than $122?
By the way, did anyone notice that the market smashed through the upper bolinger band today. In recent market history this has happen three times to this degree. Twice in '08 and once in '09. Anyone care to guess what happend to the market shortly after these events?
Jack,
Yes, i mentioned that in a previous post, look above.
Like i said, it all revolves around needing a strong dollar now. What's going to be the catalyst for that? When does Ron Paul start his business against the FED?
I also think that this is the last gasp for equities and commodities, and this is not based on 3C. I would note that the guy who runs Pragmatic Capitalist went short a few weeks ago and he hardly ever goes short. Attila over at XTrenders is also short as of Nov. 3 and calling for and I quote "a breathtaking dump to 1070". He will evaluate things when it gets down there. Attila has been spot on this year on the markets. One call he made (and I was on the site that day) was to go long the S&P on July 1st. He went all in Futures. He is a true contrarian and waits for extremes to take a position. Some of those I respect the most are just turning bearish now. They weren't bearish until now. I regret that I was early with some trades. But I know that this move today was the or part of the end move on this leg up. It was bear capitulation day. When there are no bears left, who will the market go after next?
Alesund,
Apparently that webbot prediction thingy is also saying that next week is going to be a 'tipping point'.
THE ONLY THING I CAN SEE THAT WILL GIVE THE $DOLLAR A HUGE BOOST IS FOR A SOVEREIGN DEFAULT, PREFERABLY IN EUROPE, AND I CAN ONLY SEE THAT HAPPENING TO IRELAND IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.
Alesund,
If you're interested in that webbot stuff:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgeojLKvRRI
It basically works on 'the wisdom of crowds' theory.
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