Friday, November 26, 2010

GLD/SLV

 GLD 1 min -pretty much in line except for the one attempt to break higher met by a negative divergence this a.m.

 GLD 5 min showing a negative divergence near the recovery top and pretty much most of Wednesday 3C headed down while GLD was lateral in price.

 SLV 1 min looks like a reversal off the gap bounce this a.m.

SLV 5 min showing negative divergences into the top

Both Gold and Silver have seen a mass psychology bubble. The mantra for both has been "buy, buy, buy". While fundamentally I do not object to that mantra, I've issued no trades on either except in a few gold mining stocks. There's just something that doesn't make sense, especially with GLD on the longer term charts and bubble mania always makes me nervous. This is neither an endorsement or a call to stay away. I look for edges in the market, if I don't see a clear edge, I don't raise the issue as far as trades go.

I've found some of the most dangerous assets to be in are those that are seeing this assumed, right call by the masses-it happened right before the stock market topped in 2007, it happened with tech, it happened with housing , it happened with oil and at the time, there was no good argument against any of the long calls in those assets, except the bubble effect. If 3C were massively bullish, then I'd issue a call. If it goes very negative and we see price confirmation early on, then I'd issue a call.

As far as your own opinions and how you feel about trading them, as I said, I'm not taking a bearish stance in terms of a short call. I'd just advise not to get so caught up in the hysteria and even if you go long, always assume a defensive, skeptical posture which should be accompanied by good risk management,

2 comments:

JC said...

Everyone in addition should realize that JPM control SLV. They have a huge short bet in Silver while serving as the fiduciary entity for this ETF. This is also a paper trade for the metal. Currently, paper trades in the metal markets are roughly 100-1. A physical position in either metal might be of better use if you plan to hold for a long period of time. SLV seems to be not doing as well as some of the other ETF's in silver because of it's association with JPM. At least that is what I have read.

JC said...

Watching the EURO doing a Swan Dive!!! Our market should be at least 4-700 points lower than it's current position based on these past valuations with the EUR/USD trade. We have retraced nearly everything on this dollar trade with respect to the 21st of September. The SPY was at roughly $114 on that day.