As I said earlier this morning, "Should the XLF fall, then the correlation between the dollar and the market should come back into play and be the primary driver of the market."
Because there's such strong correlation with the dollar, the market is not in a great position at this moment with the dollar having gained strength, but the XLF didn't give up much ground today, even though many banks did in intraday trade-still XLF refused to budge.
It looks like the banks were seeing distribution today.
Here's what the currency chart-EUR/USD looks like as the Euro gave up substantial ground today.
Here are the 3C charts going into the weekend.
All in all, it looks like there was distribution throughout today's lateral price trend.
I'd expect we will see POMO front running into the close as Monday is the last POMO of QE1.
The key will be the submitted to accepted ratio at 11 a.m.
UUP on the 60 min is showing positive divergences, while GDX is showing negative.
31 comments:
Thanks Brandt. My own analysis agrees with what 3C is showing. The large speculators have been mega short the market for 6 weeks now. They are much more short now than going into the April 2010 peak. They were short before that major peak as well. I think that QE2 is intended as a way to manage an expected major downside event.
No problem Alesund. I'll be posting a more comprehensive view of the market over the weekend. I hope some one got into that BAC short when it was announced, thy'd already be making money.
Apparently Bank Of America reported no day with trading losses In Q3...
... so, er, shouldn't these be the 'smart money' we should be following... not whatever 3C is following?
BRANDT. Show us the ACCUMULATION and DISTRIBUTION on the **(DAILY SPY)** charts. The DAILY SPY charts showed back starting in JULY, that the market was BUYING for a move UP staring in JULY based on the ****(DAILY SPY)**** chart.
BRANDT always show us the ***(DAILY)*** SPY charts.
meeee,
Did Brandt answer your questions about his short/long position or has all gone quiet on that front?
BRANDT. Did YOU answer my question about YOUR SHORT accumulated over the past months like YOU have been telling us?
Like said, YESTERDAY the DAILY SPY chart you showed us, showed that the DAILY SPY chart was accumulating BUYS and UP starting in JULY. But YOU were telling us to accumulate SHORTS.
So BRANDT answer my question about YOUR SHORT accumulated over the past months like YOU have been telling us? What are SHORT positions like?
BRANDT YOU have been telling us to ACCUMULATE (SHORT) at least since JULY for the BIG SELL OFF. That is the truth! I am NOT making that up. I DARE anybody who had been reading BRANDT post back from JULY till AUGUST. And BRANDT had never said DUMP the SHORTS because the MARKET is NOW going LONG.
The people have who done like BRANDT was telling us these past few months, and ACCUMULATED positions like (FAZ) all these months because BRANDT has been telling us to accumulate for a SHORT market.
BRANDT you DEFINITELY have NOT been telling us to position ourselves for and UP market or to go LONG. Even NOW YOU are saying, or ***(HOPING)*** that the market is going to reverse.
Like the other guy asked. What is YOUR (SHORT) position like, since you have been telling us to ACCUMULATE SHORTS these past few months???
Yes mee the answer was in last nights post
I cannot find your POST.
WHAT was your ANSWER Brandt.
MEEEE. BRANDT did NOT give you ANY answer last night. I looked, and there was NO answer to your questions as I copied (BELOW) from YOUR post said,
"The people have who done like BRANDT was telling us these past few months, and ACCUMULATED positions like (FAZ) all these months because BRANDT has been telling us to accumulate for a SHORT market.
BRANDT, what is YOUR (SHORT) position like, since you have been telling us to ACCUMULATE SHORTS these past few months???"
Our main positions are faz and tmv
Is THAT you answer BRANDT? "Our main positions are faz and tmv."
We asked YOU, are YOU in the HOLE or getting KILLED with YOUR (FAZ) positions?
"Our main positions are faz and tmv"
- Yep, that says it all, Brandt has real conviction in 3C. Us poor suckers are short on the averages, precious metals and long on VIX, FAZ like Brandt said was the wolf thing to do... and yet he's only got a position in FAZ and TMV... What about the big sell-off in equities that Brandt proclaimed was just around the corner!! Yeah, Brandt really believes that's going to happen, but not really put his money where his mouth is, right?
... that says it all about 3C. No wonder he has to get income from charging us suckers $50pm for some of the worst advice i have ever seen.
Wish i'd never heard of 3C, who agrees?
So BRANDT. You also did not answer my question about the (DAILY SPY) chart showing STARTING back in **(JULY)** that the accumulation was **(UP)** or LONG, and not DOWN.
Why were YOU telling us back then to accumulate SHORTS (FAZ), when the YELLOW accumulate line in JULY had (CROSSED ABOVE) the price CandleSticks representing an accumulation UP not DOWN?
BRANDT. Show the **(DAILY SPY)** chart again please.
G,
Why have you removed your posts?
From ZeroHedge
"If JPM and HSBC hoped that the lawsuits filed a week ago by Brian Beatty and Peter Laskari, which we discussed previously, were going to be the end of their public exposure with regard to possible silver market manipulation, they are about to be disappointed. Today, in a separate lawsuit filed by Carl Loeb in the Southern District of New York, a new light on precious manipulation by the duo was shone, this time involving allegations of breach of the Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act. And with the CFTC itself admitting of ongoing manipulation in the silver market, it appears this issue is not going to go away quietly any time soon. Per Steve Berman, co-counsel of plaintiff law firm Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro: "The practice of naked short selling has long been a serious issue on Wall Street. What we know about the scope and intent of JP Morgan and HSBC's actions in this short-selling scheme dwarfs any other similar attempt to manipulate a commodities market." As this case is also seeking class action status for the class, readers who wish to join this particular case may apply to do so at the following link. Plaintiffs are seeking that the court enjoin JP Morgan and HSBC from continuing their alleged conspiracy and manipulation of the silver futures and options contracts market."
I know I have said this before, but it appears silver may be the best play in the metals market due to the very large short position held by JPM and HSBC plus the fact that it trades 100-1 for physically delivery. If the dollar trade reverses it could see a pullback, but I'm not sure it will be equal to gold. The FED has basically said F U world. 3C is probably picking up JPM and HSBC trying to protect there position which seems may be coming to an end with these very soon to be public law suits. On top of that the Chinese have allowed their largest bank (70% owned by the government) to start opening metals trading account for the general public. This millions of new investors can now invest direct into the silver and gold market. This opened about September 7th. These are things that 3C won't pick up on, especially when the Smart Money here is trying to keep silver short. This is not the fault of 3C as it does what it is suppose to. We need to keep track of the global directives that are taking place. Many Central banks are rotating out of US dollars, going into the euro(only God can figure this one out, but it is a good way to punish us if you think about it) and buying up gold and I'm sure silver. The gold and silver purchases are being done on the side because they are trying to hide it and won't devulge there purchase or holdings.
Jack,
I said all that many posts ago, look back. I said that GLD and silver comex shares are fractional reverse scams. I said that JPM, HSBC, et al have had huge price suppressing shorts on precious metals for years.
I asked Brandt to run 3C over Sprott's gold (they have silver too now) trust which apparently is actually backed 100% by physical gold/silver/miners and he said 3C saw selling in those too.
I bought my physical silver when it was $17 an once, i wanted to go a lot heaver into silver as it crossed $20, but 3C said that silver looked 'bad', so i didn't. It's now $26 an ounce... same thing for gold when it was $1244 an ounce.
... and now you want to ignore 3C's advice on gold and silver and buy gold and silver at these prices? Is that what you're saying?
Brandt,
Pre-QE2 announcement, what about all the posts you made about people close to the FED et al trying to tell the market not to expect much, trying to lower the market's expectations and that you didn't think Bernanke would unleash QE2 to the extent he has done? Well, that turned out to be another bad call, no? You thought there would be a sell-off on disappointing QE2 news..
Well, Bernanke has basically given wall street exactly what it wanted, $600b dollars + around $300b+ POMO, so nearly $1trillion dollars... like, i said, 100 POMO's for the next 8month = around 3 a week...
... the only thing that can bring this market down now, is huge dollar strength and the only thing that is going to do that is:
1. A sovereign default outside of the US.
2. A huge terrorist (false flag of course) attack, nuclear type level.
Yes, I said they were trying to reduce expectations as GS was out there and others saying trillion and much much more. The Fed came in with a number that ever pundit has said this is what the market discounted. So yes, I don't think they wanted investors thinking a trillion or 2 trillion were coming.
Brandt,
I think the problem is that Bernanke has now set the precedent that he's willing to do whatever wall street wants at the detriment to the whole population and world economies, once you go down this road, you cannot stop.
QE1 was proven to have little positive affect, QE2 will have no positive affect either... but it will force more and more people to see 'yield' (i.e. drive them in to equities, precious metals, etc) as interest rates are zero and the dollar purchasing power is being destroyed by huge amounts...
... of course, 3C says equities and precious metals down. Which is the complete opposite and it's burning members here to hell.
The $600b + $300 POMO was just for the next 8 months. People are already talking about QE3. Dollar has already fallen 10%+ in 2-3 months.
You say smart money follows hedge fund activity, but hedge funds fail and collapse all the time. We should be following the likes of Bank of America, Goldman Nutsacs, all who have perfect trading records quarter on quarter. You think they've been short on the markets the past 2 months? Not a chance! They've ridden this 'bounce' and made money every day!
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/18/hedge-fund-failures-business-wall-street-funds.html
... and hedge funds by their very nature go against the market, that's why the hedge funds are called hedge funds.
SO, LOOKS LIKE WE ARE SCREWED FOLLOWING THIS 3C NON-SENSE WHICH FOLLOWS HEDGE-FUND 'smart money'.
Mr. Pink
You are right and the $600b is likely just the start of a whole lot more to come. With the new congress I doubt we will see any more stimulus or bailouts so this will just add to Bernanke creating more money out of thin air.
I read somewhere that you don't need to buy downside put protection as the Fed has done it for you.
By the way, where has the smart money been going during distribution? Physical gold?
Anonymous,
No idea, all i know is hedge funds fail all the time, and if 3C is following hedge funds, which by their very nature do the opposite to what the market is doing (that's why we see such wide discrepancies between real market action and what 3C is showing, just look at 3C VIX chart for that).. then we're absolutely crazy to be following 3C which is following hedge funds (especially as they will be on the opposite side of their own trade most of the time).
SO BRANDT, WHY ARE WE FOLLOWING HEDGE FUND ACTIVITY, WHERE'S THE PROOF THAT THEY ARE THE SMART MONEY?
Mr Pink
I just looked at 3C VIX and the 2010 chart is just insane. 3C may be showing something to come but obviously there is a game changer. The Fed? Can you think of a filter for this?
Anonymous,
All 3C VIX is showing is the hedge funds are doing the opposite to what is happening in the real market... that's why they are called HEDGE funds... because they hedge positions by doing the OPPOSITE of what the market is doing...
... and that's why 3C is slaughtering us, because 3C follows hedge funds funds and the hedge funds are doing the opposite to real market action!
All i know is that hedge funds go bust all the time, so WHY THE HELL ARE WE FOLLOWING WHAT HEDGE FUNDS ARE DOING! BRANDT, WELL, WHERE'S THE ANALYSIS THAT SHOWS THAT HEDGE FUNDS ARE 'SMART MONEY', WELL!?
3C follows accumulation and distribution. The distribution it picked up in GLD coincided with PIMCO's selling a majority of their gold position. APPARENTLY THE RECENT POSITIVE DIVERGENCES ON SHORTED CHARTS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THE LONG ACCUMULATION OF THE DOLLAR MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLE BELOW. It DOES NOT specifically follow Hedge Funds, HOW IN THE WORLD COULD I WRITE A AN INDICATOR THAT FOLLOWED ONLY HEDGE FUNDS? It follows large accumulative/distributive flows of capital.
Brandt,
3C may not specifically target hedge fund activity, but it certainly includes it and because hedge funds have some of the largest capital available in the markets it must have a significant influence, like you said below in a previous post of yours:
-------------------
"Hi Brandt,
I wanted to let you know one of my close friends is a hedge fund
manager, his fund has about $8 billion in total assets, he's been
accumulating shorts on various issues and has been getting killed on
”
I didn't get into specifics beyond this note, but a hedge fund manager with $8 billion under management isn't accumulating shorts for no good reason. This is precisely what 3C shows us, what “smart money is doing in a price trend”.
------------------
So, you include hedge funds as being 'smart money', but like i said, hedge funds go bust all the time and by definition they do the opposite to the real market action, that's why they are called HEDGE funds. And it would certainly explain why we are getting slaughtered following 3C in:
long dollar.
long VIX.
long FAZ.
short equities.
short precious metals.
etc.
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