Here's an article from Zero Hedge that some may find interesting regarding the $USD
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/confusion-continues-spec-dollar-longs-jump-while-investors-bet-commodity-inflation-and-treas
5 years ago
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Risk Management
Get the Most Out of Your Experience
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 1
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 2
- * The Holy Grail of Investing and Trading-MUST READ-MUST UNDERSTAND IF YOU WANT TO EVER MAKE CONSISTENT MONEY IN THE MARKETS
- * Member's Video-SWING TRADE ONE ENTRY SYSTEM
- * Placing Stops-What you should consider...
- * A Currency Crisis
- * A Currency Crisis Continued...
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My Charting Software
3C Quick Start
Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.
The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.
We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.
You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.
Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.
The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.
The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.
Position Sizing
The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.
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Is interest rates about to start going up? - Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it to be.
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Futures Update BR-EXIT Edition - So the conventional wisdom couldn't have been more wrong. Those chasing risk and closing hedges couldn't be in a worse place right now. I would still remin...8 years ago
7 comments:
BRANDT still have NOT answer my question about the (DAILY SPY) chart showing STARTING back in **(JULY)** that the accumulation was **(UP)** or LONG, and not DOWN. Or you don't want o answer my question.
Why were YOU telling us back then to accumulate SHORTS (FAZ), when the YELLOW accumulate line in JULY had (CROSSED ABOVE) the GREEN price line representing an accumulation UP not DOWN?
BRANDT. Show the **(DAILY SPY)** chart again please.
meeeee,
You're banging your head against the wall there, we only discuss the 10%-20% 3C is correct here.
The majority of the time 3C is wrong and, well, we just forget about those numerous instances so any new suckers subscribing here don't get spooked.
Yes MR PINK. I think you may be right about BRANDT. BRANDT doesn't seem to want to answer THIS question.
Why were YOU telling us back then to accumulate SHORTS (FAZ), when the YELLOW accumulate line in JULY had (CROSSED ABOVE) the GREEN price line representing an accumulation UP not DOWN?
BRANDT. Show the **(DAILY SPY)** chart again please.
MEEE a yellow line crossing green price in and of itself means nothing, it is not accumulation. If I zoom the chart out it will look even more different, above or below, reading 3C has nothing to do with that whatsoever. Numerical values like 0-100 on oscillators has no bearing whatsoever on 3C. What is important is comparing relative points to one and another and like most indicators (many people do not know this), divergence is the most powerful signal. For the record, I did answer this question already for you.
So BRANDT, do you use the DAILY SPY chart to help determine the (LONG) range movement?
And can you INCLUDE some PICTURES of the ***(DAILY SPY)*** chart in your DAILY postings?
Thank you BRANDT.
So, er, correct me if i'm wrong but FAZ is at an all time low?
Also, it's lost 40%+ of it's value since the start of September 2010.
At it's peak in Dec 08 it was 2,000, now it's 10.49!
Another good jump up in the markets in general and it look like FAZ could get even closer to zero.
Asia markets up strong at present. YOUR ADVICE AND THIS 3C NONSENSE IS KILLING US BRANDT.
You said your 'high roller' was a good indicator of market tops when he starts to panic and think about covering his FAZ short. Well that was around a month or so ago and FAZ has lost a big chunk of value since and the markets are up even further, and you still maintain that they haven't changed their FAZ position or hedged against it? Your high roller must be getting as slaughtered as the rest of the sheep on here that followed your FAZ advice (as well as advice on other positions to take).
What's the plan Brandt? When's the big sell-off you proclaimed was just around the corner? Today? This week? Next week? Next month? Next year? AND IF YOU BELIEVE IN THIS BIG SELL-OFF WHY HAVEN'T YOU GOT SHORT POSITIONS ON THE MARKET AVERAGES YOURSELF!? LIKE MEEEEE ENQUIRED ABOUT YOUR POSITIONS.
WE"VE BEEN LED TO THE SLAUGHTER LIKE SHEEP.
and another POMO day to look forward to today!
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