Monday, November 1, 2010

POMO Submitted to Accepted Ratio at 7.5:1

Doing a little reading and trying to keep up with the front running that is both from primary dealers and retail as everyone now thinks that POMO=$$$ in equities. As I've stated numerous times, when something is obvious, it is usually obviously wrong as the market makes money by making the most amount of people wrong at any one time. When everyone front runs POMO, it's only a matter of time before the real or perceived relationship of every one  or every sheep, doing the same thing is finally broke up to make the majority in the wrong, but first they are conditioned to believe that easy money is as simple as something like front running POMO.

The Primary Dealer relationship is harder to explain, there's a lot of unknowns including what the Fed intends to buy and how much-I would think the PDs know this in advance from the Fed, a sort of insider trading type scenario, but "if" they don't know how much the Fed will buy was is accepted, vs. what is submitted, then a weak monetization like 7.5:1 vs. the historical average is a sign that there's a good chance that risky assets (i.e. equities) will sell off. Today we saw at least the beginning of that sell-off as the opening gap was faded. This opening gap is a function of the font running, the fade or sell-off is a result of the weak accepted Accepted to Submitted results seen and published after the operations are complete in the late morning. This is basically what we've seen thus far.

Still we need to keep an eye on all that is, as tomorrow is election day. I'd think that the Republican sweep is pretty much priced in. I read something about a bookie sort of guy taking odds on the election paying off those that bet Republican last week, BEFORE THE ELECTION as the perception seems to be locked in pretty tight.

I'm just guessing, but I'd think there will be an initial Fed-like effect where the initial reaction is reversed within a time span between intraday and a couple of days-the FED effect is very real and we'll see about that one too shortly.

I'm going to be studying the charts looking for the stuff others missed.

No comments: