Monday, November 1, 2010

STI Suntrust

I was watching and wondering when STI might break down, although this isn't a total breakdown, it's not positive behavior.
It looks like STI put in a false breakout (red box) from the trading range, the move down which was fast is common with false breakouts or breakdowns in reverse.  You can see MACD didn't want to confirm the move either with a negative divergence at the breakout. The white arrow is where I'd love to see a bounce to start a short position. A break below the white line also would be an ideal point to start a short position, ultimately though a break below the trading range is where I'd want to fill out the rest of the position. What appeared to be a possible bull flag last week has now closed the gap and retraced a fairly large amount, I'd say too much to be a bullish continuation/bull flag.

 On the daily 3C chart you can see 3C didn't want to confirm the breakout from the range either and now is in a leading negative divergence on the daily which is about as big and bad as you get. You can also see the negative divergence at the April/May top. This is one to keep on your short sale watchlist-maybe set an alert for the price levels I mentioned above.

The market

 The 1 min 3C charts show the DIA with the 1 p.m. positive divergence, not big, but enough to get a move up going on a small scale and then the negative divergence-again not big, but enough to make DIA move lower.
 The green arrows in the QQQQ essentially show confirmation and no real divergences of any consequence.

The SPY again shows the 1 p.m. positive divergence and since then confirmation of the price action. The big red volume is curious. Right now the TICK index is moving toward the lower boundary of the previously mentioned trading range as is price in the market. there was a small bearflag that I suspect was behind the recent price action in the market-the flag occurring in the EUR sent it a bit higher, but now it's headed back lower and the market seems to be once again, following the EUR/USD pair.

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