Thursday, November 18, 2010

Shock and Awe...

The GM IPO comes out and suddenly all concerns all over the world are yesterday's news. Not quite that simple. Those "failed divergences" in the 1 -5 min charts the last 2 days failed to turn the market, but as explained it was more to do with the intense pressure the drop in the Euro put on the market; it doesn't mean there was accumulation and that accumulation ended up on the 10 min chart. Since Tuesday night I've expected this bounce, I guess the GM IPO day was far too simple to put 1+1 together. They absolutely want a warm waters environment n the market to pump GM's first day trading-even a the Euro is finally turning down, perhaps showing signs there is more coming out soon, and not good news. The press is reporting concerns over Europe have abated as a deal is close, but the problems in europe are so much bigger then whether Ireland takes a bailout or not, I hope my posts on the subject have made that clear.

In addition, now the US has our own version with municipals heading for default. Remember the post several months back about the pension "un-funded liabilities" that these states and cities face, as well as companies as is expressly written in the GM IPO. They counted on 8% annual return to meet their obligations, which is insane. Well this is finally here to haunt them as two cities and a county were downgraded yesterday, another is going bankrupt. Services are being cut everywhere.

So look at the macro side of things and I personally am not ascribing too much meaning to today's move, it's expected, there are long term signs in the Ultrashorts and 3X bear as others that major accumulation patterns are in effect there.

As far as 3C today thus far...

QQQQ 1 min. has the start of a negative divergence although it has been in confirmation most of the morning.
QQQQ 5 min has a fairly big relative negative divergence.

SPY 1 min is inline with price, but slowing down, it may go into a negative divergence.
The 5 min is positive.

The DIA 1 min loks like the SPY 1 min, it may have slowed a little more.
The 5 min is tracking price in confirmation but has also slowed.

USO 1 min has gone negative, although the 5 min remains positive.

UUP 1 and 5 min are in positive relative divergences.

FXE is in a slightly positive 1 min divergence and 5 min is in a negative relative divergence.

This seems to make some sense as the EUR/USD pair has seen the Euro lose ground the last 3 hours after staging a bounce of roughly 2 days.

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