Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Another day of NOTHING. The 3 major averages came in at an average gain of .05%. As I warned Sunday night, this would be a low volume, high volatility market, we have seen that volatility through morning gaps, but there's no follow through in either direction. What we have is a bunch of computer driven HFT trading systems running the market up and down, but with no conviction, no bias, no price discovery. This even explains the lack of reaction to the news which hasn't been very good of late. Come January we should see some movement, trades like WMT should show some conviction. In the meantime, we can keep nailing these Cats and Dogs trades. Today, one of our Cats and Dogs trades that triggered this morning (this is why it's important to set alerts ), CFW made about 28% for our members who jumped in the trade as it triggered at the limit price set last night-CFW closed up on good volume 31.25% for the day. There's a good chance we see follow through on this trade tomorrow, like XOMA last week, but remember, these are quick trades, not trend trades so when you get a gift from the market like that, you take it. Whether you take it all or take half or your profits, that' up to you, but don't loose those gains.

One interesting chart I looked at tonight was the Baltic Dry Index. This is the rates charged by shipping companies transporting dry goods. Falling prices in the index are indicative of economic activity. As you can see, the trend is solidly down.

Vs the S&P you can see that the index is diverging badly from equity prices, this is obvious manipulation of the market. Which brings to mind the PIMCO coined phrase, “The new normal”. Every time we see bubble like activity we always hear the same thing, “It's different this time”-it never is and the phrase alone is indicative of a market that is overheated or in a bubble.

The only other notable event today was the ramp up in precious metals. Silver being the most anticipated trade, once again failed to break the $30 level.
As you can see above the high was $29.65 and a close of $29.53. Tomorrow may be an iinteresting day in the PM space.

Here's the SLV 5 min 3C chart

As you can see, today there was profit taking/distribution in SLV-earlier I showed you the same and the accumulation that led to today's move up. This may turn into a solid trade, but not until $30 is taken out.
Asian markets were higher overnight in mixed fashion, Dow futures were also slightly higher overnight so we may be looking at another gap up in the morning, watch those trades on the list, make sure alerts are set and if you are inclined to take the trade, I'd be quick about taking the trade. Today's move in CFW was profitable, but the amount gained depended upon how quickly you entered the trade. Just remember the risk management aspect which will allow you to take a shot at these trades without risking more then .05 to 1 or 2%. 
For now, keep your alerts set and take advantage of these double digit one day gains. I'll keep adding trade ideas throughout the day, as they develop, I'll be going into further depth on these trades.

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