Wednesday, December 29, 2010

BAC Still Can't Take Out Resistance

I've mentioned BAC, a bank that I would think still has large troubles ahead of it. I've been talking about the resistance at $13.40 and BAC's inability to close above $13.40 or breakout through that resistance level. Before the recent rally BAC has seen, it saw a nearly 7 month downtrend, uninterrupted; a real nice trade.

BAC may offer up another trend down, but we are at a critical point and $13.40 is the level in which we have to watch.

 Here 3C 30 min shows the negative divergences at the tests of resistance at $13.40-right now we see a negative leading divergence. I like the trade short if it breaks below support at $13, but you can also enter the trade in this area with a stop above $13.40 on a CLOSING basis, no intraday. In this way your risk is fairly low, the break of $13 is higher probability, but the trade up here is lower risk as it's only several cents from a stop. I would not place the stop at $13.40, it's too obvious and once stops pile up at that resistance zone, it may be tempting for the market middlemen or HFT's to run those stops and take BAC above $13.40 for a day or two on a false breakout. Remember, they are still chasing volume to make their money. So a stop with a little more room makes sense, maybe $13.52 or something that's not so obvious and is not a whole number like $13.50.

On an intraday basis, we see at least 6 attempts to hold above $13.40, all failed.

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