Monday, December 6, 2010

NFLX on the Radar

This stock was run up so high in a ponzi-type fashion during the earlier QE regime, there is the possibility of significant downside should it break down through it's normal volatility range.
 Here's the cross over screen (daily chart), you can see in the green boxes the long signal, we are still on a long signal, but there has been technical deterioration. The pullbacks on NFLX lately have been deep, all the way to the red VWAP, a break below that VWAP around $175 would be the area in which I would consider this a decent risk:reward trade, although some traders may wish to phase in earlier.

This is my volatility based Trend Channel I use for stops and reversals, interestingly the daily stop as of now is around the same area @ $175.

The daily 3C chart shows where the technical deterioration has come into play. The green arrow represents confirmation of the uptrend, just recently it's seen it's first negative divergence and remember last week's disclosure that the CEO just sold 100,000 shares and is left with approximately 56,000. I believe there have been a number of former sales as well by insiders.

 This morning's 1 mn chart, not too important right now.


 The 5 min chart shows a negative divergence around the same area we see it on the daily chart.

The 15 min chart shows confirmation (green arrow) and then a negative divergence the same place as the other 3C charts.  This one also shows a negative leading divergence and I threw in a long period TSV showing the same.

Keep this one on the radar.

No comments: