Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Chart Requests-GDX, SLV, NEM, UUP

Many, many charts ahead! 

GDX
 GDX showing heavy volume on a 13.58% decline puts GDX in an oversold condition.

 GDX 60 min 3C chart showing the negative divergence at the top, it broke support and seems to have broken down out of a topping formation. Corrections right after such a break often will test resistance which is around $57.50-$58.25. The white arrow shows the positive divergence that has developed for the correction. There seems to enough accumulation there to provide a pretty decent corrective run up.


 a 10 min chart gives us a closer look at the accumulation which often occurs at price lows. 3C is also showing confirmation of the trend on this chart indicating that no major distribution has occurred yet.

 Here's the stop I would use if I was in a trending trade, a little north of $60

For those looking for a tighter stop, the $58 level is another trend channel stop. I think if you go much tighter you might as well just stop out here and now and re-enter the trade upon a reversal/distribution.

NEM
 NEM has clearly broken down from a top congestion pattern. Volume has been heavy and it too is in an oversold condition. Note my long version MACD is negatively divergent as well.

 NEM 30 min 3C. Distribution at the highs, there's some accumulation recently leading to this move up.

 Nem 1 min shows mostly confirmation of the trend with some afternoon profit taking

 I'd probably use a stop in the $60+ area as this has enough accumulation to run a bit higher.

15 min chart isn't showing any heavy accumulation so this is most probably an oversold bounce.

SLV
 SLV has declined 13% and is oversold and due for a correction. Again we see distribution as price highs, this is likely a midterm-maybe long term top. MACD is also divergent.

SLV shows a false breakout in the yellow box-as usual with false breakouts, the reaction was a sharp downturn. Yesterday put in a doji which is a high probability reversal candle as downside momentum fades leaving the door open for the bulls to take control.

 The daily 3C chart especially highlights the false breakout and the negative divergence associated with it. This is an area in which institutional money went short.

 the 60 min. chart confirms the false breakout as well and shows recent accumulation for a correction. Like I said above, these events are planned, not spontaneous.

 The 15 min SLV chart shows a decent amount of accumulation, it's likely this move s just getting started.

 More confirmation on the 10 min chart.

 more confirmation on the 5 min chart.

 The 1 minute chart shows confirmation of the trend, there's no real distribution to speak of except some late day profit taking.

Here's a recommended stop around $28.75. You may wish to raise it a bit.
UUP
 UUP is putting in a star (reversal candle) on increasing volume (increases the chance of a successful reversal.


 The daily chart has remained fairly positive despite the price trend. UUP will move because of the EUR/USD pair, but the actual ETF's accumulation or distribution is determined by market participants.

 UUP hourly positive divergence


 UUP 30 minute positive divergence

15 minute positive divergence of some consequence

Here's the bigger pattern, a bullish descending wedge and some base work. A breakout around $23.50 should start a trend up, in the meantime there's some support in the $22.25 area.


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