Thursday, January 6, 2011

Eurozone Contagion-Again

Tonight I listed several more trades, several of them are European banks, their stress tests have been deeply flawed. Tonight the Euro is razor thin to the $1.30 level which may push the dollar up to new recovery highs. Commodities are going to be an obvious causality if this happens. Oil too-see posts on USO lately.

Multinationals are already showing signs of trouble-MCD which we have covered, but also take a look at KO, it's broken its trend ad probably will make for a good trade, but the setup right now is a bit risky, a bounce would be great there. Tomorrow I'll be looking at other multinationals.

It's a bit complicated to get into now, but the Fed's buying of treasuries, is becoming more and more dangerous for the Fed itself. I've also been talking about the oversight of the Fd by one Ron Paul, who will be looking to strip the Fed of its dual mandate and have it handle inflation alone. Expectations for QE3 I suspect will start to diminish and the markets, attitude of "There's no risk with the Fed here" may have already started to shift. This week should be the end of the clean up after last quarters window dressing and this is why you are starting to see more long term trades.

The Euro bank trades I posted tonight are worth a shot and many at very low risk. The difference between amateur and professional traders is that amateurs take one shot at a trade and if it stops out, they forget about it. Pros use risk management and thus are able to take several shots at the trade until they get the position they want. The risk on the trades I posted tonight will allow you (if you use risk management) to take several shots if need be. I think the talk about bod holder haircuts in europe that have re-emerged just today, will have a dramatic shift in sentiment for the continent.

Take a look at tonight's trades and if you have questions, let me know.

Tomorrow we'll be looking at lot closer at commodity trades, with the dollar n a position to pt in some big gains-WATCH COMMODITIES and when the trades arise, I'd suggest making a decision on them-I think there's going to be some interesting events to the downside, GLD and SLV are also two to watch, they have broken support and while they re still in the volatility range to bounce around it, in a few more days we should have an idea of what the PMs plan to do-there may be some Swing trades in the PMs.

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