Thursday, January 6, 2011

Market UPDATE

Before I move on, I just want to let you know we are experiencing an pretty intense electrical storm here in mostly sunny (but rather cold) South Florida. The lightening is within a half a mile and is shaking the house so if I lose service temporarily, you'll know why.

Lets hope that doesn't happen.

In any case, the market tried to squeeze in a new high this morning. There's a lot of things boiling up under the surface around the world-later tonight hopefully I can address a few, but one that is shaping up to me a major disturbance is the issue of Eurozone Bank Bond-holders "Haircut" theme which as of this morning was back on the table. I'd expect we'll be seeing some more very poor Eurozone auctions especially among the periphery.

Here's what our markets did this morning and it's important because of that concept I've mentioned a half dozen times this week, the concept of a "False Breakout" and the aftermath which is generally a quick and painful move in the other direction-it was just covered in the USO post. Is that what we saw this morning?

 DIA 5 minute 3C chart-note the negative divergence at the attempted break higher in the red box. We saw a pretty substantial intraday sell-off from there over the next 30 minutes and may be forming some sort of bear flag consolidation/continuation pattern.

 QQQQ 10 min 3C chart, we saw the same action this morning, again in the red box, but equally disturbing is the negative divergence that was forming up yesterday into the highs, suggesting that the upside failed breakout may have been nothing more then a run of the stops and /or a bulltrap.

And the SPY 10 minute chart, again the same theme.

I've added some more trades to the January trade list and have updated some stops from older trades that several of you are in.

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