DRYS used to be one of the high flying-ultra volatile shippers back in 2007-2008 when we still had some economic activity. Remember that the 2003-2007 rally was largely supported by consumer spending as everyone leveraged their homes, it made sense for shippers of dry goods like DRYS to profit from that (recall my post yesterday looking at the DJ-20 transports versus the DJ-30 there's an obvious disconnect between the market and consumer spending as transports show). Here's DRYS:
DRYS experienced a 96% fall from it's highs (roughly).
When I originally looked at shorts in shipping, I did not choose DRYS because of this long flat-line base. Of course what smart money thought a year ago may change drastically with the political BlackSwan events we are experiencing now, it just didn't seem to have the best profile for what I was looking for then.
Here's the daily 3C chart which still looks bullish to me, there's a leading divergence in the white box.
We see the current small correction showing signs of a negative divergence, but there is not overwhelming confirmation among the various time frames.
The current consolidation is starting to wedge a bit and may very well break down, I'm just not sure to what extent as other shippers looked like they had more to lose.
Here's a Swing Trade stop, which we are close to, but it's held for 2 months.
Here's the longer term trending stop.
All in all, I think there are better short sale candidates in the sector then DRYS.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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