Thursday, February 10, 2011

Obama Gave the Saudi King a Heart Attack?

And many Americans I suspect. Any way, the rumor mill is in full motion this a.m. Obviously the King of Saudi Arabia dying after a heated exchange with Obama would be a hugely destabilizing event in the middle east-like I've said the extremists are thanking Allah right now as chaos and opportunity have been handed to them. Another rumor, Hosni Mubarak will step dow tonight...????


We'll see if the military regime can maintain it's iron grip on the government over the last 4-5 decades, I doubt Suleiman will stand given his advanced age as well and his real and perceived connections to the regime. 


The one thing the extremist haven't so far provided is a powerful figure of the movement, one will emerge just Ayatollah Khomeini did in Iran, Egypt just hasn't reached that point. However with events as they are and the suffering of people throughout the region, any likely leaders that fill the power vacuum are likely to be extremist in their views. People aren't thinking Democracy, they are angry and that anger is easy to turn into nationalism or extremism  as they are looking for a figure head to coalesce around who will vent their rage outwardly toward the west, just as in Iran, and similar to Hitler's Nazi party. The problems are so structurally deep that someone like Mohamed Elbaradei have little chance in succeeding at a power grab to promote Democracy-he simply can't fix the problems of runaway price inflation and hunger, which means that the military regime in Egypt will have trouble holding on to power. If you can't fix the problems, you need to be able to vent the people's rage in a direction that they are naturally inclined to in the first place. Both events if true, will be major destabilizing events in the middle East (thus U.S.Warships heading for the region) and it's likely that the list of countries I rattled off in the first pair of videos the other night, will start to fall like dominos. Effectively, Middle East policy has collapsed and whether Bernanke understands it or not, the speculative boom his policies have driven are partly to blame.


Thus oil's ascent today, but that's not news to us. We've just been waiting for that position to be accumulated and they'll try to hold it back until they do get a sufficient position size, then watch out as institutions ride the wave of higher oil that's been handed to them as a gift mush like the extremists have been handed the gift of a destabilized Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia-that's been the crown jewel of their desires.


We may want to keep a closer eye on alternative energy stocks as a revolution throughout the Middle East will likely displace OPEC.


I'll follow up later with more analysis on the situation, but things are coming to a head very quickly in a number of way and places.

No comments: