Thursday, February 10, 2011

WFC Trade (Short?)

The Wells Fargo CFO just abruptly quit, I'm not sure of the backstory but he was making a nice living and just walked away from it without announcing any other plans. Something may be brewing at WFC. Technically it's not in a bad position to consider a short sale any way.

 WFC weekly chart coming into a resistance zone, note recent candlestick momentum has been weak.

 Looking at the Heiken-Ashi price chart, we've seen some recent bearish indecision candles, but more strikingly is volume at price in the white box. Also note the bollinger bands and recent volatility tightening up.

 Here's a normal candlestick chart, again volume at price is a little disturbing. ADX has turned down from 45 which signals a fading trend/reversal and the vortex indicator is looking a bit bearishly biased compared to the past and narrowed considerably.

 The daily 3C chart (red=negative divergence/distribution, white=positive divergence/accumulation) we see that typical accumulation base around summer of last year. Currently as price tests the resistance zone, 3C is showing a negative divergence meaning the amount of institutional support this time is not as much as last time at the same price area.

 Remember, we just had some recent, out of the blue news, the 60 min chart is showing a negative divergence and price has slipped since.

 The 30 min chart is confirming this as well.

 And here the 10-min chart almost looks like there was a push toward resistance perhaps to set some short positions on 2/7-2/8

The hourly Linear Regression channel is close to a break down and certainly has not been trading strongly in the upper half of the channel..

I'll list this trade, but I might wait for a break of $32.30 before I got my feet really wet. Remember to widen the stop on these initial breakdowns as the HFTs will be looking to shake the tree to knock out new shorts on a breakdown.

I'd prefer a stop above the recent highs of $34.25, but depending on your position sizing and intent on the trade, obviously that could be adjusted tighter.

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