Saturday, February 26, 2011

This is not an Islamic Revolution

In the recent past I've listed a number of countries seeing protests, many outside of the middle east and Africa including Europe. We have seen the initial stages of protests in China, North Korea, south Korea and now Vietnam -Article Here from Al Jazeera.

This has more to do with the inflation that CPI refuses to acknowledge and threatens several varieties of Black Swan Events. The UK's latest inflation and GDP are putting them in a spot in which they have to consider raising interest rates. I have berated Bernanke for playing the innocent role of "QE? Causing civil unrest? No!" As he recently said when asked during a Q&A, his smug answer was that central bank policy can't add one bushel of corn. This is not only smug, sarcastic, but condescending as we all know that Bernake's QE or the Bernanke Put has caused money to be borrowed at nearly zero interest and invested in risk assets so you can effectively say that the Fed IS EXPORTING INFLATION.

Take a look at the CRB (commodities) Index and tell me the rising prices caused by ultra low interest rates have not fueled immense speculative activity in all risk assets including the stock market.

LOOK AT THAT VERTICAL RISE SINCE QUANTITATIVE EASING. The Fed has now not only put the American economy in extreme danger as traders have leveraged up on margin debt to levels not seen since the bull market top in 2007, but they are now contributing to inflation worldwide, that's what these revolutions are about, however, what they turn into may be something completely different. This is the MOST dangerous Fed we have ever seen, one that is fueling world political turmoil.

Furthermore, QE can not last forever and when the Bernanke put is removed (and the market's recent dip may be discounting that now) the failure of the SEC to address structural liquidity problems may very well cause the greatest bear market drop we'll ever see-Which for us is not entirely bad as we will be there to take advantage of the change. However, millions of Americans and possibly billions of people around the world are going to pay the price for Bernanke's "academic experiments". I feel it is because he's putting the "too big to fail banks" first as the Fed shows it does NOT have the self proclaimed political independence and as these banks show record trading quarters.

Here's the Vietnam Story-the World just got a little more dangerous.

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