Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Currencies

 The Euro trust ETF-FXE showing a 1 min positive divergence-so we should see some upside there.

Meanwhile the more important 5 min chart of UUP has been very positive today.

I'm thinking 1 of 2 things may be happening, either this is just a short term correction intraday or perhaps there's an expectation that either the G7 or the Bank of Japan are intending on intervention in the USD/JPY pair as the first G7/US/Japanese intervention hasn't moved the pair much.

Other then the initial intervention at the blue arrow, the pair has traded lateral with a slight downdrift. $80 is the key level and if there isn't upside momentum, that leaves the pair open to a downside reversal.

Intervention would of course cause the dollar to rise if it was significant enough. Should the Euro succumb to bad news out of Portugal (not Greece ), then the dollar would only rise that much faster. The Euro/USD accounts for half of the Dollar Index's weight.

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