Tuesday, March 8, 2011

NKE Chart Request...

OK, NKE reports March 17th, so as far as earnings and the market's reaction to "possible" leaked earnings or expectations, we still have plenty of time as leaks will usually show up between a few hours to 3 days before earnings as the locals act as late as possible as to not tip off other traders. However, a large position in a large cap like NKE can take some time to shift around.

The daily chart, yesterday we had a bearish engulfing candle on big volume-once again a sign of churning and a negative reversal signal-note the volume yesterday

The 60 min chart shows an accumulation/distribution cycle. This is how the market works, they accumulate at lows nice and quietly and then sell into higher prices, not into the decline. They have a large position and they must sell into demand to keep prices rising rather then falling so it happens a little bit at a time, this is why distribution can take some time to work out and why we watch multiple timeframes to try to ascertain wen these events begin and end.

The 30 min chart also shows signs of the accumulation cycle and the distribution cycle -in the red box is our bearish engulfing candle yesterday. Note hoe negative 3C has been during this event.

Te 10 min chart puts a very fine point on yesterdays' distributive action in NKE.

As does the 5 min chart.

The 1 min chart can't stretch back any longer historically, but there's a negative into yesterday. today we have confirmation only.

Once again the daily chart shows a breakaway gap that hasn't been completely filled/. Yesterday was a breakout into the gap from a bearish ascending wedge. If the wedge breaks down soon, I'd guess NKE is in some trouble, but being an obvious pattern, usually they'll try to breakout price above the wedge's apex (point)  before letting it fall. The overall bearishness of the chart is not diminished by any upside breakouts. The wedge is not a manipulation, what may happen in the days after it forms can be, but the pattern itself is to big for a manipulation-it's the real deal, it's bearish.

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