USO Update

So far the calls on USO have been pretty much right on. Here's the situation.

Here's our original downside target in white for USO-although after that, I expect to see a move to a new high.

The hourly chart shows the current distribution has turned USO down from the last accumulation cycle.

On the 1 min chart we do have a positive divergence, this may be an intraday move or we may have to change our downside target based on Japan's need to import crude to make up for their nuclear power short fall. While it's true that refineries and ports in Japan are shut down, it doesn't mean that traders who understand this won't front run the trade. Still, they'd be better off accumulating at lower prices, so for now, I'm going to assume this 1 min divergence is just an intraday wobble until we have more evidence to suggest otherwise.