AAPL Earnings

This is turning into a strange situation with AAPL. First, yesterday there was a legal document filed in a suit AAPL has against Samsung which made it's rounds and apparently seems to have given details of how many I-pads, I-Phones they've sold. There's some question as to whether it covered the full quarter, but if so, then they came in above consensus on I-phone sales and below consensus on I-pad sales. I pads, from what I understand have the highest profit margin around 60%. For this to be released yesterday is a little beyond coincidence in my opinion. This morning another unusual leak made its rounds, that AAPL would be releasing an upgraded I-phone later this year.

I just don't believe in coincidences like this right before earnings. I don't know what to make of them, perhaps letting information out slowly would reduce the shock from any bad earnings? I really don't know. However, here are the AAPL chart as of 2:30 today (keep in mind that GOOG's earnings offered no clarity until the last hour of the day so things can move quickly.

 AAPL is in a confirmed downtrend, it just hit the lower channel Monday and is now at the upper channel today. On 3/7 there was a false break above the channel.

 The hourly chart shows most of the negative divergences at the reversal point and really is in very good confirmation with AAPL's price trend.

 On this 30 min chart, I have to call Monday's low a positive divergence (relative), but the positioning right now is a bit shy of confirmation.


I guess this chart says the most to me, a 15 min 3C chart shows no apparent large accumulation, in fact it doesn't show any and today's move once again is not confirmed.

I also don't see a really negative recent reading, but the trend is established and 3C has been in confirmation of the trend. My best guess at this point is that AAPL remains within the trend with the possibility of a slight move above the channel before heading back down. I'd think if the report would come in strong, we'd see accumulation on a decent scale, I don't see that. Perhaps a miss isn't going to be a huge event with the leaks out early to let traders get used to the idea by preemptively lowering expectations.