Wednesday, April 20, 2011

LVS FOLLOW UP

Today's gap in the market gives you an opportunity to get into some trades at lower risk and good price points.

LVS which has recently been mentioned is one trade that is worth a look right here.
The first LVS trade was March 1st that made about 15% on the downside. This kind of trade would be under the category of "Kissing the top good bye", the top being the large triangle.

 As has been typical, there's a cycle up, usually followed by distribution and a lateral trend which forms a resistance barrier, next resistance is broken and most reversals see that break above resistance to turn out to be a false breakout, which provides the initial spark of downside momentum when longs who chased the breakout start to sell at a loss when the breakout fails. We are up to the breakout point with some evidence that it seems to be a false breakout, which provides good positioning, low risk as a stop can be placed above the very recent intraday highs and a good probability trade with good risk/reward characteristics.

On the 60 min chart we see the start of the accumulation cycle, there's several higher highs in 3C confirming the uptrend and then a negative divergence which leads to the lateral trend. The breakout you can see is negatively divergence suggesting a high probability of a false breakout.

 a look at the 15 min chart reveals the same 3C action.

Today's 5 min chart is hitting lows that create a negative leading divergence. The trade can be played several ways, one would be to short here or on any further intraday strength and have a stop a few percent above the intraday highs formed today. This has the best profit potential, You can also wait for confirmation of the false breakout when price crosses and preferably closes below the $45 area, this scenario gives up a little profit and you'll need a wider stop, but it is a higher probability.

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