Monday, April 18, 2011

MMM Follow Up

MMM was a trade idea from 4/13

Here are the current charts. Remember that large caps have been getting picked on. We talked about BGZ as an ETF for broad coverage for shorting large caps, but I also don't like to use ETFs only, there's advantages of a pure equity short that an ETF doesn't afford you and there are sticky areas with ETFs, so I prefer a blend.

 The daily chart again with a negative MoneyStream divergence as well as the STOCH/RSI sell signal

 In last night's late post I talked about how the distribution cycle has begun, but they distribute into higher prices, often you'll get some lateral movement and then a false upside breakout before a reversal. This is a perfect example of that concept. The first red arrow shows the distribution process in the cycle starting, it goes a bit higher and then goes lateral, then we have 1 false upside breakout in the red box that breaks resistance and fails, then the downtrend or reversal starts. You might even want to print this chart out to understand the cycle process, it's very common.

Here are several areas of possible support in which MMM could bounce a bit. Again, if you like the trade for large cap short exposure, then you could build a position on any strength adding a bit at a time, or you can wait for the last support level to be taken out and take a position there.

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