Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Dollar Update

 15 min UUP-the recent pop was not confirmed by 3C, so it looks like a move that may fall back down and give the Euro a little breathing room for a few days.

 The 5 min chart refused to confirm as well, I showed this to you yesterday with the EUR/USD post.

 However very short term on the 1 min chart, there's a little positive divergence there tht sent the Dollar a bit higher.

In red is the GCC commodity index compared to UUP (USD proxy) and around 11 am, the same time as the 1 min positive divergence, commodities fell as the dollar gained.

Right now, I don't see this as a substantial threat, unless there's more downgrades out of Europe, I'm sure the Syrian/Iranian nuclear situation isn't helping oil right now either.

As a brief side note, I don't like to get into politics and there are only a handful of politicians I like. However, I mentioned a Stratfor report that I read about Israel's security and for the most part, Israel is secure in its current format/boundaries. However, the West Bank is crucial to their security. They're relatively safe from the south/South West with the Sinai, There's little chance of a serious attack from the north, the West Bank corridor is crucial and they've been under heavy pressure from the US government regarding the region.

This Syrian/Iranian nuclear news that's coming out is probably not helping the oil situation at this point.

However as the point of this post is the dollar vs commodities which seem to be the only thing seeing any risk appetite today, I don't see this particular move in the dollar as being a sustainable threat in the near term.

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